US dollar outperforms G10, EU in focus

Market Brief

The USD remains broadly in demand in Asia this morning after Wall Street ended in green. The S&P gained almost 1%, the Dow Jones 1.17% while the Nasdaq climbed 1.27%; futures are also up this morning. After a tough previous week, the greenback reversed the trend as the EUR lost -0.58%, the JPY is down -0.26%, the CAD edged down -0.33% while the AUD retreated by -0.35%. The released of RBA’s minutes last night triggered a move lower in the Aussie, the Bank said the respond of housing market to a rate cut is uncertain; they preferred to remain on hold and to wait for more economic data. However, the RBA is in favour of further monetary easing, we therefore expect a rate cut in May from 2.25% to 2%.

In Asia, equities are broadly higher this morning following New York’s lead. The Hang Seng is up more than 2% to 27,643pts, the Nikkei gained 1.20% while the Shanghai Composite is up 0.80% to 4,250, erasing partially the losses from Friday.

USD/JPY trend gains momentum since Monday as the pair validated a break of the 119.20 resistance (Fib 23.6% on March sell-off) and turned it into a support. On the upside, USD/JPY will find some buying interests above 119.74 (Fib 38.2%) but it first has to break this resistance. One can also find a resistance at 120.18/30 (Fib. 50% and multi high) and a support around 118.60 (multi low).

AUD/USD has been widely sold-off since Monday morning and has lost 140pips so far. The Aussie is currently sitting on the 0.7688 support (Fib. 38.2% on Feb-Mar sell-off) and looks determined to break it to test the next support standing at 0.7629/50 (Fib 23.6% and multi high). In case where the AUD/USD finds fresh boost, the nearest resistance can be found at 0.7736 (Fib 50% and high from April 9).

In Europe, equity futures are blinking green on the screen as main indices are still trying to erase losses from last Friday. Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.40%, the Footsie is flat (+0.09%), German equities rises 0.53% while the SMI is up 0.36%. EUR/USD bears are overwhelming buyers as the pair is heading to 1.0685 (Fib 61.8% on March rally) after breaking the 1.0730/55 support (Fib 50% and low from early April). We expect the euro to remain offered, even though erratic moves are expected in reaction to developments of the Greek situation and the release of the German ZEW later this morning.

USD/CHF had some trouble breaking the 0.9481 support (low from April 3) and is now heading again to 0.9595, the following resistance (multi high and low). EUR/CHF continues sliding discreetly toward the parity. The pair is getting closer to a key level, the high from January 20 (1.0225). A break of this level would open the way to the parity, at least.