|

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD weakness likely to persist until FOMC meeting

XAU/USD Current price: $1,754.85

  • US data again boost the US dollar across the boards.
  • US yields keep rising ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.
  • XAU/USD short-term outlook negative, under $1,745  next potential target near $1,720.
gold

Gold prices tumbled on Thursday, affected by rising US yields, a stronger dollar, and technical factors. The ounce troy dropped to $1,745, hitting the lowest level in a month. Economic data from the US triggered a rally of the dollar and also the decline in Treasuries. The US Dollar Index rose toward 93.00, reaching the highest level since August 27. The US 10-year yield jumped to 1.35%, matching last week's high and then pulled back. The 1.35% barrier has become critical, and a break higher could trigger more of the current moves in favor of the dollar and against gold.

Following Wednesday’s upbeat US economic data, on Thursday the retail sales report showed a 0.7% increase in August, above expectations; and the Philly Fed soared to 30.7, against market consensus of a modest decline to 19. Those figures took more relevance ahead of the FOMC meeting next week. Gold prices could remain under pressure until Fed’s announcement as market participants continue to digest the latest positive economic numbers.

Gold price short-term technical outlook

The sharp decline sent technical indicators to the downside. The RSI is at oversold extreme levels but still pointing south with no signs of favoring a consolidation ahead or a rebound. The slide was capped by the $1,745/50 support area that is a strong barrier. A break below should open the doors to more losses, probably targeting the $1,725 area.

A bullish correction could find resistance at $1,775. The band between $1,775/80 is now a critical obstacle. If XAU/USD recovers levels above, it could alleviate the bearish pressure. To negate the negative bias, gold needs a daily above $1,833 while in the short-term, the downside pressure remains intact, even after the $50 sell-off.

Support levels: 1,745.00 1,723.50 1,714.95

Resistance levels:  1,764.50 1,779.45 1,795.00

View Live Chart for the XAU/USD

Author

Matías Salord

Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.

More from Matías Salord
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD rises to 0.6950 as USD slips on Fed's Warsh

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the bounce toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. Fed Chair Warsh's comments reinforce the selling pressure on the US Dollar, allowing the pair to stretch higher. Warsh said that he remains committed to delivering price stability without giving away anything on future interest rate path.

USD/JPY falls in symc with USD, gives up 158.00 after Warsh's speech

USD/JPY has come under fresh selling pressure and gives up 158.00 in the Asian session on Friday amid the emergence of fresh US Dollar selling. Fed Chair Warsh's non-committal commentary on the future tightening path, weighs on the US Dollar and the pair.

Gold looks vacillating above $4,150

Gold alternates gains with losses below the key $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The yellow metal’s irresolute price action comes in response to a modest pullback in the US Dollar and a tepid recovery in US Treasury yields across the board.

Bitcoin steadies at $82,000: The five forces crushing the Uptober rally

Crypto markets have remained under pressure so far in October, with Bitcoin (BTC) sliding below $80,000 earlier this week before recovering to around $82,000 on Friday, as macroeconomic headwinds and cooling demand weigh on the market.

The Fed just got a second hot inflation number. Here's what the diesel signal is really saying
The Federal Reserve (Fed) faces a renewed inflation challenge after two consecutive reports showed price pressure intensifying across the US economy. September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) confirmed accelerating consumer inflation, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) revealed an even sharper rise in business costs. Behind both reports lies a common factor: energy prices.
Everyone's dumping Gold after hot US inflation. Here's why $4,100 could be a floor, not a cliff
Gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from a sharp sell-off triggered by hotter-than-expected United States (US) inflation data released on Wednesday. The precious metal briefly plunged toward $4,073 as investors increased their bets on further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes before recovering as US Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD) reversed their initial gains.