Yesterday, the Trump administration released a comprehensive list of Chinese imports it would put tariffs on. The list included an assortment of products, mostly in the technological and pharmaceutical sector. Today, as a response, China released its list of American products it would place tariffs on. The list was tactical. It targeted the key American exports like soybeans, airplanes, and motor vehicles. As a result, the major global indices fell because investors feared that a trade war was starting.

In general, the sanctions are relatively small on both sides. They total about $100 billion for countries that trade goods worth trillions of dollars every year. Nonetheless, the two countries have more tools that could have significant consequences. For example, China can stop buying US debt, punish American companies in their country, and levy more tariffs on American goods. Still, the two countries will need to talk because tariffs alone won’t address the underlying problems.

A day after the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged, the country released its retail sales data. The data showed that the retail sales accelerated by 0.6% in February. Analysts were expecting that the sales would increase by 0.3%. In January, the retail sales expanded by 0.2% while in December, they fell by 0.5%. At the same time, the number of building approvals declined by 6.2%. Analysts were expecting the approvals to fall by a slimmer margin of 4.8%. This was one of the major concerns from the RBA officials in yesterday’s statement.

Eurostat today released the inflation numbers of the European Union. Core CPI in the region moved up by 1.0% compared to the estimated 1.1% while the YoY CPI remained unchanged at 1.4%. The major sectors that gained were mostly food and tobacco, while energy prices declined. Meanwhile, in the United States, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) released the employment change that passed analysts’ estimates. According to them, 241K jobs were created in March compared to the estimated 208K. This data gives a preview of what to expect on Wednesday, when we receive the official employment data.


On an hourly chart, the EUR/USD pair has wiped the gains made since March 21 when the pair started soaring. The climb saw the pair reach a high of 1.2476, before starting to fall to the current 1.2290. During this decline, the pair has managed to complete a corrective Elliot Wave. Today, the pair is reacting to several data sources such as EU inflation, prospects of a trade war, and the positive ADP job numbers.



The pair traded within a narrow range today, a few days after falling to a low of 0.7741. Today, the pair fell from an intraday high of 0.7716 to a low of 0.7660 after data from Australia showed accelerating retail sales. From the United States, ADP data showed that employers were accelerating hiring. Nonetheless, in traders’ mind today was the issue of trade and how a war would impact the different economies.



The DAX is an index of the 30 biggest companies in Germany. Today, the index continued the decline it started yesterday, when it fell from a high of €12,160 to a day’s low of €11,784. Today’s decline was attributed to the ongoing trade issues. Today’s decline was led by companies like Infenion, Lufthansa, and Continental. The only outliers on the gaining side were Adidas, Biersdorf, Merck, Bayer, and Henkel. There is a likelihood that the index will rise after the fears on trade ease.


General Risk Warning for FX & CFD Trading. FX & CFDs are leveraged products. Trading in FX & CFDs related to foreign exchange, commodities, financial indices and other underlying variables, carry a high level of risk and can result in the loss of all of your investment. As such, FX & CFDs may not be appropriate for all investors. You should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to trade, you should become aware of all the risks associated with FX & CFD trading, and seek advice from an independent and suitably licensed financial advisor. Under no circumstances shall we have any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in whole or part caused by, resulting from, or relating to any transactions related to FX or CFDs or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential or incidental damages whatsoever.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

GBP/USD off 7-month highs, still firmer as Tories hold the lead

GBP/USD retraces from the new seven-month highs of 1.3180 but remains strongly bid, as weekend polls have reaffirmed a solid lead for PM Johnson's Conservatives. Cable dropped on Friday amid upbeat US data.


EUR/USD steadying above 1.1050 amid upbeat German export data

EUR/USD is trading above 1.1050, attempting a recovery after Germany reported an increase in exports in October. EUR/USD dropped sharply on Friday amid upbeat US Non-Farm Payrolls and weak German industrial output. 


Cryptos: Market ready to launch, not knowing who will lead it

The market hesitates between Bitcoin and Ethereum to lead the next bullish run. Ethereum will suffer heavy losses if not in command. Bullish clarity may call for terminal motivation bearish jerks.

Read more

Gold bulls hold in there on geopolitical and trade risks, despite robust USD

Gold prices were under pressure at the start of the week as the US dollar seeks correction of the latest slide following a very healthy headline accumulative number in US jobs creation which included strong revisions.

Gold News

USD/JPY: Bears losing their grip as market attempts to bottom

USD/JPY is trading on the bid in the US session following a rise from 108.42 the low to a high of 108.66.


Forex Majors