Arnaud Masset
Swissquote Bank Ltd
The last batch of economic data from Germany points towards further pain. July’s industrial production came in well below estimates this morning. The gauge contracted 0.6%m/m while market participants expected a monthly increase of 0.4%. On the bright side, the June’s 1.5% contraction was upwardly revised to -1.1%. Recession risks for Europe’s largest economy have risen sharply over the last few months as bad economic data has been piling up. In July, factory orders dropped 2.7%m/m, retail sales contracted 2.2%m/m while manufacturing PMI nosedived to 43.5 in the month of August.
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According to the latest data, it looks like the 0.1%q/q contraction GDP growth in the second quarter was just a foretaste of what is to happen in the third quarter. Indeed, there is a substantial risk that the manufacturing weakness spreads to the whole economy, which would weigh on the service sector and ultimately affect negatively job creation over the medium term. Unfortunately, the auto industry, Germany’s leading sector, is not out of the wood yet as the US/China trade war together with a global slowdown of that industry would not be resolved in the coming months. Expect further pain for Europe’s leading economy.
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
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