GBP to be the best-performing currency in 2017 on Brexit as difficulties in the EU mount
A volatile and wild 2016 is coming to an end and at FXStreet we are already looking forward to what 2017 may bring to the markets, which doesn't seem to be less interesting from a trading point of view. To get a glance on the upcoming trends and developments for the markets, we have asked our best contributors ten questions to help us understand what may be ahead. Here are the views from Joseph Trevisani, Chief Market Strategist at WorldWideMarkets:
1. What will 2016 be remembered for?
The year of the populist revolt in the West: Brexit, Donald Trump, the Italian referendum and the fall of Matteo Renzi.
2. Which were your most important achievements this year?
Maintaining objectivity on the US Presidential election.
3. What emerging trends or issues should traders prepare for in 2017?
Rising global interest rates. The zero rate experiment has largely failed. It did not create sustainable economic growth. Though its proponents will claim that it forestalled recession there is no way to prove or disprove that assertion. The Federal Reserve has reversed policy, the rest of the world, even probably Japan, will follow.
4. Which will be the best and worst performing currencies in 2017 and why?
Sterling will perform the best. The departure of the UK from the stagnant EU will become a credit to the pound as the difficulties and dissension of the EMU and the EU mount.
5. Which under-the-radar currency pair do you expect to make a big move in 2017?
The Mexican Peso as fears of immigration and trade conflicts with the US fade and stronger US growth helps the Mexican economy.
6. Which macroeconomic events will have the biggest impact on the FX markets in 2017?
European elections: France; Netherlands; Germany; likely Italian.
7. Which asset class will cause the next financial crisis?
Emerging market dollar denominated debt as US and global rates rise.
8. What will you be focused on next year?
The effect of rising interest on global debt markets.
9. Who are the people to watch in 2017 in terms of impact on the industry?
The US administration of Donald Trump, the possible repeal of the Dodd-Frank regulations and the opening of the US market to non-US registered FX firms.
10. What are your New Year's resolutions?
To drink more Manhattans.
Author
Joseph Trevisani
FXStreet
Joseph Trevisani began his thirty-year career in the financial markets at Credit Suisse in New York and Singapore where he worked for 12 years as an interbank currency trader and trading desk manager.
