Greece looks ready to return to the markets tomorrow

EU Market Update: Greece looks ready to return to the markets tomorrow; Various EU officials reiterate EU crisis is not over

Notes/Observations

- (DE) German Chancellor Merkel: Reiterates view that Euro Area crisis was not over at this time - comments on Federal budget in Parliament

- BMW.DE: Reports March Group Sales 212.9K units, +11.3% y/y (monthly record); Q1 487K units, +8.7% y/y (Q1 record)

- TM: To recall 6.58M vehicles globally to fix faulty steering and seats in 27 models (largest recall since 7.4M one in 2012)

- BRAVOFLY.IPO: Closing IPO early due to strong demand, IPO over-subscribed multiple times in its price range of CHF40.00-52.00 ($45-$59) per share

- (UK) UK retailers have cut prices at the quickest pace since 2006

- SEIBU.IPO: Cuts shares offered to 27.8M from 80.9M prior; Gives tentative IPO price range of ¥1,600-1,800/shr v ¥2,300 initially thought; Largest holder, Cerberus, withdraws from IPO

- (AU) Australia Consumer Confidence posts its first rise in 5 months (99.7 v 99.5 prior); Aussie dollar nearing 6-month highs

- (GR) Greece seems poised to retest the bond market after a four year absence; European official stress that the crisis is not yet over for the region

- (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) leaves policy steady (as expected) but leaves the door open to continue its easing cycle

Equities

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open slightly higher ahead of FOMC minutes, Goldman makes cautious comments on certain Italian banks, Basic Materials firms lag after Monday's outperformance, Stronger yen and Toyota recall weigh on Nikkei

- Indices [Stoxx50 +0.4%, FTSE 100 +0.7% at 6,638, DAX +0.4% at 9,526, CAC-40 +0.5% at 4,446, IBEX-35 +0.7% at 10,553, FTSE MIB +0.8% at 21,834, SMI flat at 8,421, S&P 500 Futures +0.2% at 1,848]

By Sector

- Consumer Discretionary [Volkswagen VOW3.DE +2% (broker commentary)]

- Consumer Staples [CHR Hansen CHR.DK +5.5% (H1 profits above ests)]

- Financials [UniCredit UCG.IT -0.8% (broker commentary), Credit Suisse CSGN.CH -0.5% (broker commentary)]

- Basic Materials/Resources [Antofagasta ANTO.UK -1% (broker commentary)]

- Technology [Wirecard WDI.DE +5% (issued FY14 guidance, declared dividend)]

- Stoxx50 Sectors [Consumer Cyclical +1.2%, Utilities +0.4%, Technology +0.4%, Energy +0.4%, Industrials +0.4%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.2%, Telecom +0.1%, Financials flat; Basic Materials -0.5%]

Currencies/Fixed Income

- The USD was little changed in a quiet session but the greenback remained on the defensive.

- The SEK was softer as the session wore on (giving back some initial strength). EUR/SEK re-approaching the 9.0 handle

- Greece 10-year gov't yield approaching 6.10%; lowest level since Mar 2010

Economic Data

- (DE) Germany Feb Current Account Balance: €13.9B v €18.0Be; Trade Balance: €16.3B v €17.5Be; Exports M/M: -1.3% v -0.5%e; Imports M/M: 0.4% v 0.1%e

- (CZ) Czech Mar CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.2%e

- (ES) Spain Feb House Transactions Y/Y: -27.6% v -23.2% prior

- (DK) Denmark Feb Current Account Balance (DKK): 9.5B v 9.0Be; Trade Balance (Ex-shipping): 8.7B v 6.5Be

- (HU) Hungary Feb Preliminary Trade Balance: €766M v €750Me

- (EU) ECB €104M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €162M prior; €38.2B parked in deposit facility vs. €30.8B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions

- (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) left its Repo Rate unchanged at 0.75% (as expected); tweaks its rate path a touch lower for 2015/16 period

- (NL) Netherlands Feb Industrial Production M/M: 1.6% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 5.2% v 2.1%e; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 2.3 v 0.2% prior

- (UK) Feb Visible Trade Balance: -£9.1B v -£9.2Be; Overall Trade Balance: -£2.1B v -£2.1Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -£2.9B v -£3.4Be

- (IT) Bank of Italy (BOI): Feb Bad Loans at 24.3% y/y v 24.5% prior

- (GR) Greece Feb Industrial Production Y/Y: 1.7% v 0.7%e

Looking Ahead

All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)

- (PL) Poland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave base rate unchanged at 2.50%

- (MX) Mexico Mar ANTAD Same-Store Sales Y/Y: -1.2%e v -0.2% prior

- 05:45 (DE) ECB's Lautenschlaeger (Germany) in Berlin

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Feb Trade Balance: No est v -€925M prior

- 06:00 (EU) OECD Feb Unemployment Rate: No est v 7.5% prior

- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 2018 and 2028 Bonds

- 06:00 (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) expected to give formal announcement for its 5-year Bond sale

- 06:30 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at 20th German Banking Congress, Berlin

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing

- 07:00 (RU) Russia canceled planned OFZ bond auction

- 07:00 (UK) PM Cameron weekly question time in House of Commons

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Apr IGP-M Inflation 1st Preview: 0.8%e v 1.2% prior

- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Apr 4th: No est v -1.2% prior

- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Mar IBGE Inflation M/M: 0.9%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 6.1%e v 5.7% prior

- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank (NBH) Mar Minutes

- 08:15 Baltic Dry Bulk Index

- 08:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey

- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Mar CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.8%e v 4.2% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior

- 10:00 (FR) ECB's Coeure (France) in Washington DC

- 10:00 (US) Feb Wholesale Inventories M/M: 0.5%e v 0.6% prior; Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 1.0%e v -1.9% prior

- 10:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank Gov Belka post rate decision press conference

- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories

- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.9-1.15B in bonds

- 11:30 (BR) Weekly Brazil Currency Flows

- 12:00 (US) USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $21B in 10-Year Notes Reopening

- 14:00 (US) Fed Minutes from March 18-19 FOMC meeting

- 14:00 (FR) ECB's Coeure (France) in Washington DC

- 15:30 (US) Fed's Evans speaks at Conference in Washington