EUR/USD Forecast: Consolidating gains, bullish toward 1.1150

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1093

US encouraging data and disappointing EU readings failed to push the pair lower.
US-China trade talks remain comfortably numb, markets a bit more optimistic.
EUR/USD holding on to its bullish stance, needs to take over 1.1120.

Dismal EU data didn’t help much the EUR/USD pair, but persistent dollar’s weakness keeps it afloat just below the 1.1100 figure. Speculative interest is a bit more optimistic about progress in the US-China trade relationship, but the cautious stance prevails.

Germany published October Factory Orders, which were down in the month by 0.4%, and by 5.5% when compared to a year earlier. In the EU, Retail Sales in the same month were down by 0.6%, and when compared to a year earlier, up by 1.4%, missing the market’s expectations. The Employment change in the Union in the third quarter of the year was up by 0.9% YoY, also missing the market’s expectations of 1.0%.

The US just released the October Trade Balance, which surprised to the upside as the deficit shrank to $ 47.2B. As for employment figures, US-based companies announced job cuts decreased by 11% in November, to 44,569 from 50,275 cuts announced in October. On a year on year comparison, US employers have cut 13.1% more jobs than in November 2018. Weekly unemployment claims were also upbeat, down to 203K in the week ended November 29.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair continues trading at the upper end of its weekly range, neutral-to-bullish according to intraday readings. In the 4-hour chart, the 20 SMA is crossing above a flat 200 SMA, after already breaking through an also directionless 100 SMA, all of them below the current level. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart lack directional strength, with the Momentum just above its 100 level and the RSI around 62. The pair topped this week at 1.1115, while a relevant Fibonacci resistance comes at 1.1108. Once beyond these levels, the rally should continue toward the 1.1150 price zone.

Support levels: 1.1065 1.1030 1.0985

Resistance levels: 1.1120 1.1150 1.1190

View Live chart for the EUR/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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