EUR/USD analysis: EU inflation up next

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1147

The EUR/USD pair fell down to 1.1131 this Thursday, with the greenback extending its Wednesday's gains against most of its major rivals. Dollar's buying pick up pace after London's opening, with European currencies weighed by the sour tone of local equities, and soft local data. The euro area recorded a €17.9B surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in April 2017, compared with €26.6B a year earlier, also down from March's early figure of €30.9B. US data was mixed, with the NY Empire State manufacturing index up to 19.8 in June after falling 1 point in the previous month, and the Philadelphia one printing 27.6, beating expectations of 24.0. Initial Jobless claims for the week ended June 9th were down to 237K from previous 245K, but Industrial Production came flat in May, with the capacity of utilization down to 76.6% from previous 76.7%, this last, interrupting dollar's advance.

The pair is technically bearish short term, poised to extend its decline this Friday, particularly on a break below 1.1109, May 30th low and the immediate support. Supporting the decline are technical readings in the 4 hours chart, with the price extending below its 20 and 100 SMAs, while technical indicators head south near oversold readings. The next big support comes at 1.1075, the low set on May 18th, level that if gets broken, will likely open doors for a steeper correction towards the 1.1000 threshold, especially if EU May inflation, set to be released this Friday, misses expectations.

Support levels: 1.1110 1.1075 1.1030

Resistance levels: 1.1160 1.1200 1.1245

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD: Next upside target comes at 0.7000

AUD/USD has advanced further, clinching its third consecutive day of gains and trading at shouting distance from the key 0.7000 threshold on Tuesday. The widespread improved sentiment in the risk complex helped the Aussie maintain its upside momentum, while the fresh selling impulse in the Greenback also contributed to the move.

USD/JPY rises back above 158.00 despite hawkish BoJ outlook

USD/JPY rises back above 158.00 in the early European morning on Tuesday. The pair strengthens as the Japanese Yen fails to find any inspiration from hawkish BoJ expectations and looming intervention risks. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty and elevated US bond yields keep the US Dollar near its YTD high despite receding October Fed hike bets. This, in turn, helps the pair stay supported.

Gold stays firm; looks at $4,200

Gold builds on Monday’s marginal bounce, although it struggles to reclaim the key $4,200 mark per troy ounce so far on Tuesday. The yellow metal’s advance comes on the back of the fresh downside momentum in the US Dollar in tandem with retreating US Treasury yields across the curve.

Ethena Price Forecast: ENA corrects as Ether.Fi launches stablecoin on the protocol

Ethena (ENA) trades near $0.24000 on Tuesday amid growing technical weakness. The Ethereum Layer-2 token has shed some of its recent gains, which peaked at $0.2946 on September 27, reinforcing profit-taking and buyer exhaustion. An extended sell-off would bring ENA to test the psychological support at $0.2000 and key technical levels further down.

Japanese Yen nears 158.00: Two analysts agree it's bullish, and disagree on how far the breakout goes

The JPY is drifting near 158.00 against the USD ahead of a busy week of Japanese data and a still-unclear BoJ timetable. The two most recent FXStreet analyses agree on the direction, but they disagree on the target and the mechanism.

Eurozone inflation just hit 3.8%, its highest in three years. This chart shows why the ECB can’t simply hike its way out

The ECB would normally have a relatively straightforward answer to inflation running almost twice its target: raise interest rates. But these are not normal circumstances. This time, the bond market is already doing part of the tightening for it, leaving the ECB facing an increasingly difficult dilemma.