Intraday Outlooks For USD Index, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, Oil

The following are the intraday outlooks for USD Index, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, and Brent Crude as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

USD INDEX: On the road again. After a little more than a month of consolidation in a bull triangle the greenback yesterday made an impulsive and successful exit hence confirming the resumption of the bull trend. The next obstacle will be the January peak, 95.48, but it will probably not cause much of a problem for the market to pass. The theoretical target for the triangle is 97.07 and once met the risk of a more substantial correction will start increasing.

EUR/USD: Finally a directional move. With the break of 1.1262 the green light has been given for a move down to a fresh trend low. The triangle’s theoretical target is 1.0840 (minimum target is marginally pass the recent low point 1.1098) so there should be ample of room for the pair to move lower in the near term. However as triangles often tends to be the last congestion in a trend move the following low point (below 1.1098) will also be a somewhat more lasting one creating the foundation for a profound bounce (back to 1.15?).

EUR/JPY: On a slippery slope. After three days of failed upside attempts above the mid body point of Monday’s bearish engulfing candle the sellers stepped up to the plate and aggressively pushed the cross lower. More supply is expected to hit the market once the 133.56 support has been cleared (thereafter focus will be turning to the 132.57 – 132.00 area. Upside reactions should be limited to the 134.30-area.

Brent Crude: Is the $63-level out of reach now? Sellers responded yesterday and cut a 2nd 63.00 attempt short with a little margin. But as long as holding above 57.80 this option remains open. For today, a double 58.10\62.63 watch seems appropriate. Current intraday stretches are located at 59.05 & 62.70.

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