We expect the GBP to remain a buy on dips, in particular against currencies such as the EUR and the CHF.
During the past few weeks political weighed on the the currency, regardless of stable BoE rate expectations. Given last week’s positive Scotland-related referendum results, investors’ focus should shift back to more constructive UK growth prospects to the benefit of the currency.
As this week’s data calendar is relatively empty when it comes to market moving events, BoE Governor Carney’s speech in Wales on 25 September should be the currency’s main driver. From a macro perspective, the latest development suggests little risk of him turning more dovish.
All of the above stands in contrast to the ECB or SNB.
As such we stay long GBP/CHF as a trade recommendation
**CA runs a long GBP/CHF targeting 1.5800.
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