Market Commentary
ECB President Draghi exceeded doveish expectations, expanding the percentage of outstanding issuance that the ECB can buy from 25% to 33% and sharply lowering inflation forecasts and outlook, EURUSD took out 1.11 falling over a big figure, to trade down to a low of 1.1087. Adding to the doveish read, the decision to downgrade the inflation forecasts and outlook came prior to recent market turmoil.
Attention now shifts to todays NFP a weak print should attract demand in EURUSD on a risk sell off. A strong NFP however should propel Euro to fresh lows and back towards the medium term support between 1.08/1.10
GBP continues to find pressure against the USD as domestic data has shown signs of weakness, The UK services PMI disappointed the market, printed 55.6 in August against the forecasted 57.7, the lowest printing since April 2013
USDJPY remains under pressure, as market caution has increased ahead of the US NFP today. The currency still trades hand in hand with equity performance and hence, the path of least resistance based on price action is to the downside. In USDJPY, 119 is the pivot going into NFP
Technical Commentary
EURUSD Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
Pivotal 1.11 bids being tested a close below the figure should increase downside velocity enroute to 1.08 range support. Only a close above 1.1250 eases immediate downside pressure. .
Daily Order Flow bearish; OBV sideways to up, Linear Regression rejected at midpoint, Psychology pierces midpoint from below
Monitoring intraday price and Order Flow indicators on a test of 1.11 or 1.1250
GBPUSD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
Symmetry objective of 1.5210 achieved a close below 1.52 emboldens bears for a retest of psychological 1.50 level, a close above 1.54 eases immediate downside pressure
Daily Order Flow bearish; OBV down, Linear Regression and Psychology bearish
Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a test of 1.52 or 1.54
USDJPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish
As 121.50 caps upside retracements bears now target a retest of last weeks spike lows towards 116. Only a close back above 122.50 relieves immediate downside pressure
Daily Order Flow bearish; OBV sideways to down, Linear Regression and Psychology bearish
Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a test of 119 or 122
EURJPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
Testing pivotal 133 range support a failure here would open 2015 lows towards 127, a close back above 1.35 would reduce immediate bearish pressure
Daily Order Flow bearish; OBV down, Linear Regression and Psychology bearish
Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators at 141 and 133
All comments, charts and analysis on this website are purely provided to demonstrate our own personal thoughts and views of the market and should in no way be treated as recommendations or advice. Please do not trade based solely on any information provided within this site, always do your own analysis.
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