EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1099
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Markets have come to their senses after yesterday's wild roller-coaster ride, and European equities recovered most of the ground lost yesterday during the London session. Data coming from Germany showed that inflation remained stable near its lows, up 0.4% in February, as expected. The year-on-year figure came in at -0.8% matching expectations but below the previous month figure of -0.3%. Wholesale prices in the country, declined by 1.9%, doubling previous month figure of -1.0%. The EUR/USD pair fell down to 1.1079 before recovering some, consolidating now around the 1.1100 figure, the 50% retracement of the latest weekly slump between 1.1375 and 1.0821. With a light calendar ahead in the US session, currencies will likely trade on sentiment, tracking stocks moves.
From a technical point of view, the 1 hour chart shows that the technical indicators have erased their extreme overbought readings and turned flat within neutral territory. In the same chart, the price stands below a bearish 20 SMA, but well above the 100 and 200 SMAs, the shortest around 1.1030. In the 4 hours chart the price is far above a bullish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators keep correcting lower from overbought levels, but within positive territory, indicating the downward correction may extend on a break below the mentioned daily low.
Support levels: 1.1080 1.1050 1.1010
Resistance levels: 1.1120 1.1160 1.1200
GBP/USD Current price: 1.4292
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The GBP/USD pair hovers around the 1.4300 figure, little changed after the release of UK data, showing that the trade balance deficit came in better-than-expected, at £-10.29B, against £-10.3B in January. Consumer inflation expectations however, showed that the expected inflation is now 1.8% against previous 2.0% for this year. The pair trades uneventfully in the short term, although given that the price remains near its weekly highs, the risk remains towards the upside. In the 1 hour chart, the price is above its 20 SMA, while the technical indicators have turned lower above their mid-lines, reflecting the ongoing lack of interest surrounding the pair. In the 4 hours chart, dips have met buying interest around the 200 EMA, around 1.4260, and the immediate support, while the technical indicators also turned south within positive territory. At this point the pair needs to extend beyond 1.4335 to be able to continue rallying up to the 1.4410 region.
Support levels: 1.4260 1.4220 1.4170
Resistance levels: 1.4335 1.4370 1.4410
USD/JPY Current price: 113.70
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Capped by 114.00, little changed. The USD/JPY pair recovered most of its latest losses during the Asian session, but remains unable to advance beyond the 114.00 figure, in line with the long term dominant bearish trend. The pair has saw a downward knee-jerk towards 112.60 after the ECB, but it quickly bounced, suggesting bearish interest has become to decrease, but needs to be confirmed with further gains beyond the 114.60 level, where it stalled this week. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the price is above its moving average and the 113.50 Fibonacci level, the immediate support, as Momentum indicator heads north above its 100 level. In the same chart however, the RSI has turned lower, now around 54 and limiting chances of further gains. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators present tepid bullish slopes within bullish territory, supporting some short term rallies, but lacking enough momentum to confirm a breakout higher.
Support levels: 113.50 113.10 112.70
Resistance levels: 114.00 114.60 115.05
AUD/USD Current price: 0.7514
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The Australian dollar recovered quickly above the 0.7500 level against the greenback, with market still buying the dips and betting for higher highs. The pair has been stuck around the roof of a daily ascendant channel for most of this week, pressuring to break higher but still unable to confirm an upward acceleration in the longer run. Short term, the bullish stance prevails as in the 1 hour chart, the price is developing above a bullish 20 SMA as the technical indicators resume their advances near overbought territory. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA maintains a strong bullish slope, although the technical indicators lack strength, despite still heading higher within bullish territory.
Support levels: 0.7500 0.7465 0.7420
Resistance levels: 0.7545 0.7580 0.7630
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