EUR/USD: still waiting for a trigger

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.0891

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The common currency met some demand this Monday, helped by tepid US data and falling oil prices. The day started with the release of the Chinese official manufacturing PMI down to 49.4 in January from 49.7 in December. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI also signaled a modest deterioration in operating conditions at beginning of 2016, with both output and employment declining at slightly faster rates than in December, and resulting at 48.4 in January. In fact, and with the exception of the UK one, all manufacturing PMIs, showed that growth decelerated at the beginning of the year, as the German reading resulted at 52.3 against the 52.1 expected and  below the 53.2 final December reading. The EU figure  matched expectations at 52.3, also below the 53.2 printed in December. In the US, personal income surged by 0.3% in December, but consumption lacked, as spending was flat during December. The US manufacturing ISM for January was weaker-than-expected at 48.2, suggesting Friday's payrolls can be a miss, given that the employment component fell. 

The EUR/USD pair traded as high as 1.0912, as oil prices were under pressure ever since London opening, down towards $31.00 a barrel by the end of the US session. Nevertheless, the common currency was unable to gather enough momentum to rally, once again, meeting selling interest near the top of its range. Holding into gains, the pair trades below the 1.0900 level and the 4 hours chart shows that the price is a handful of pips above its moving averages that anyway remain flat and in a tight range. In the same chart, the Momentum indicator heads lower after failing to overcome its mid-line, while the RSI lacks directional strength around 54.

Support levels: 1.0845 1.0810 1.0770 

Resistance levels: 1.0925 1.0960 1.1000

EUR/JPY Current price: 131.80

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The EUR/JPY advanced on the back of EUR's recovery, but remained below Friday's high. The pair is a critical level according to the daily chart, as the price is pressuring its 100 DMA, first time around it since mid December. A steady recovery above the level can signal a midterm upward continuation towards the 200 DMA currently at 134.10. Shorter term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price has moved slowly higher, leaving indicators flat within positive territory, but well above the 100 and 200 SMAs, with the shortest now around 130.10. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators are pulling slightly lower from overbought territory, but are far from suggesting a bearish move, as the price holds near its daily high of 131.99. 

Support levels: 131.60 131.10 131.55 

Resistance levels: 132.00 132.45 132.90

GBP/USD Current price: 1.4383

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The British Pound outperformed its majors peers, having climbed to fresh daily highs against the dollar during the New York session. In spite of oil's decline, the GBP found support on a modest growth improvement in the UK as the Markit Manufacturing PMI for January reached a fresh 3-month high of 52.9, up from December's 52.1. The pair retraced most of its Friday's losses, but lacked momentum to retest the 1.4400 area. Short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the technical indicators are losing upward strength, but hold within overbought territory, as the price remains near its daily high and far above a bullish 20 SMA, all of which supports some further advances. In the 4 hours chart, the price is steady above its 20 SMA, while the RSI indicator heads higher around 61, but the Momentum indicator lacks upward strength, and if fact turned lower around its 100 level. The pair established a high at 1.4412 last week, so it will take an acceleration beyond it to confirm additional gains towards the 1.4500 figure.

Support levels: 1.4360 1.4315 1.4270 

Resistance levels: 1.4420 1.4460 1.4500

USD/JPY Current price: 121.12

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The USD/JPY pair showed little signs of life this Monday, falling down to 120.67 after the release of poor US data, but quickly recovering above the 121.00 level, ending the day around Friday's close. The daily chart shows that the pair remained trapped between its 100 DMA, offering support around the mentioned low, and the 200 DMA, at 121.50, maintaining the latest bullish trend in place. Shorter term the 1 hour chart shows that the technical indicators are horizontal within neutral territory, but the price remains well above its moving averages. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators have corrected partially extreme overbought readings, but are aiming back higher, whilst the price is above the 61.8% retracement of its latest bearish run at 120.60. As long as this last level holds, the downside will remain limited, albeit an advance above 121.70, last week high is required to confirm further gains for this Tuesday.  

Support levels: 121.00 120.60 120.15 

Resistance levels: 121.70 122.10 122.40

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7085

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The AUD/USD pair trades slightly higher this Monday, with commodity-related currencies ignoring for once, the decline in crude oil prices, and gaining on the back of broad dollar's weakness. The Reserve Bank of Australia will have its economic policy meeting at the beginning of the Asian session, and is largely expected to leave   its benchmark interest rate unchanged and to sound relatively dovish, in line with the easing bias showed by other Central Banks. The pair has a mild positive tone in the short term, as the price is currently advancing above a horizontal 20 SMA and the 50% retracement of  the latest bearish run, while the technical indicators lack directional strength, but hold above their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the price managed to hold above its 200 EMA and a bullish 20 SMA, both around 0.7060, but the technical indicators also head nowhere, with the Momentum indicator around its 100 level and the RSI at 59. A break below the mentioned 200 EMA could see the pair extending its decline down to 0.7020, while below this last, the bearish tone is expected to accelerate in the short term pass the 0.7000 figure. 

Support levels: 0.7060 0.7020 0.6980

Resistance levels: 0.7105 0.7150 0.7190