AUD/USD Forecast: Focus on Australian data

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6322

Australia released an upbeat preliminary estimate of March Retail Sales.
Commonwealth Bank PMI and preliminary trade figures to be out this Thursday.
AUD/USD neutral-to-bullish as long as it holds above 0.6250.

The AUD/USD pair is marginally higher daily basis, trading ahead of the Asian opening in the 0.6320 price zone. The pair peaked at 0.6352 as Australia published a preliminary estimate of March Retail Sales, which rose 8.2% MoM, much better than the previous 0.5%. The Australian Bureau of Statistics decided to release preliminary estimates to provide a better picture of how the economy is performing through the pandemic.

Early Thursday, the country will unveil a preliminary estimate of the Trade Balance. It will also be the turn of preliminary estimates of the April Commonwealth Bank PMI, expected to have contracted further.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

The AUD/USD pair has posted a higher low and a higher high daily basis, usually a sign of further gains ahead. Nevertheless, the 4-hour chart shows that the pair is unable to advance beyond a mild-bearish 20 SMA, while holds above its 100 and 200 SMA. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain within neutral levels, without directional strength.

Support levels: 0.6295 0.6250 0.6210

Resistance levels: 0.6330 0.6375 0.6400

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

GBP/USD bounces off lows, back above 1.3200

After bottoming out near 1.3160, GBP/USD manages to regain a bit of shine and reclaim the 1.3200 mark and beyond at the end of the week. Stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales data seem to be helping the British Pound limit its losses, while the chaotic UK political environment keeps the bulls at bay for now.

EUR/USD looks consolidative around 1.1460

EUR/USD stages a modest rebound after slipping to a three-month low below 1.1420 at the end of the week. That said, the pair now looks to consolidate humble gains just above 1.1460 despite growing uncertainty surrounding the next round of US-Iran negotiations, which keeps the US Dollar’s downside contained.

Gold slips back to six-day lows, targets $4,100

Gold retreats for the third consecutive day on Friday, eroding gains seen in the first half of the week and approaching the key $4,100 mark per troy ounce. Indeed, the precious metal continues to face headwinds from the Fed's hawkish stance and renewed uncertainty surrounding the next round of US-Iran negotiations.

Breaking: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire deal violation

Iran says it is closing the Strait of Hormuz after accusing the United States (US) and Israel of violating the ceasefire. According to Iran, the decision came over the continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a warning to all vessels: "Do not approach the Strait of Hormuz; otherwise, your security will be jeopardized."

The Iran war didn't break the US economy, but what happens next?

Nearly four months after the start of the Iran war, the US economy remains remarkably resilient. While the conflict initially triggered a severe disruption to global energy markets and a sharp rise in Oil prices, recent diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran has eased concerns about a prolonged supply shock.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.