- NZD/USD declined to from 0.6250 after a strong recovery in the US Dollar.
- Annual US core PCE inflation is estimated to have accelerated to 2.7% in July.
- The RBNZ is expected to deliver more interest rate cuts this year.
The NZD/USD pair drops after facing selling pressure near 0.6250 in Wednesday’s North American session. The Kiwi asset falls as the US Dollar (USD) recovers strongly after posting a fresh annual low. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, extends its recovery above 101.00 from its year-to-date low (YTD) low of 100.50.
A decent recovery in the US Dollar appears to be bolstered by uncertainty among market participants as the United States (US) core Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation (PCE) for July comes under the spotlight. This has also weighed on risk-sensitive assets.
Investors await the US PCE inflation data to get fresh cues about the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut path. Currently, traders have fully priced in market expectations for the Fed to start reducing its key borrowing rates in September, while they are doubtful over whether the potential size of the rate cut would be 25 or 50 basis points (bps).
The data from the US PCE report is expected to show that annual core inflation rose at a faster pace of 2.7% from 2.6% in June, with monthly figures growing steadily by 0.2%.
Meanwhile, investors have underpinned the US Dollar against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), but the Kiwi’s performance against other major peers has remained firm even though market participants expect that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will cut interest rates aggressively this year. The RBNZ unexpectedly pivoted to policy-normalization two weeks back.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD jumps back above 1.1000 on renewed US Dollar sell-off
EUR/USD is posting sizeable gains above 1.1000 in early Europe on Monday. EU prepares for retaliatory tariffs and rekindles the global trade war and US recession fears, drowning the US Dollar again aross the board. Traders now look to the EU Sentix and Retail Sales data.
GBP/USD holds recovery gains above 1.2900 amid fresh US Dollar weakness
GBP/USD clings to recovery gains above 1.2900 in European trading on Monday. The pair capitalizes on renewed US Dollar weakness as risk sentiment takes a fresh hit, with European traders hitting their desks. Trump's tariffs-led US recession fears and dovish Fed bets keep the USD undermined.
Gold price rebounds swiftly from multi-week low; lacks follow-through
Gold price reverses an Asian session slide to over a three-week low, though it lacks follow-through. Recession fears continue to weigh on investor sentiment and benefit the safe-haven commodity. Bets for more aggressive Fed rate cuts undermine USD and also lend support to the XAU/USD pair.
Crypto market wipes out $1 billion in liquidation as Asian markets bleed red
The crypto markets continue to decline on Monday, with Bitcoin falling below $78,000. The Asian markets also traded in the red, with Japan’s stock market extending losses to 8.5%, its lowest level since October 2023.
Strategic implications of “Liberation Day”
Liberation Day in the United States came with extremely protectionist and inward-looking tariff policy aimed at just about all U.S. trading partners. In this report, we outline some of the more strategic implications of Liberation Day and developments we will be paying close attention to going forward.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.