NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls set on at least a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

NZD/USD is in the midst of a powerful upside correction.
Bulls are mapping out the Fibonacci confluence targets.

Ross J Burland FXStreet

NZD/USD has been tracked in a series of technical analysis since August from when the makings of a monthly reverse head and shoulders pattern had been identified.

From the outset, the price action has been analysed and various opportunities were identified for trading opportunities while the monthly downside continued to play out, just as expected.

The flow of analysis to date is as follows:

As per the latest analysis in the above series, NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bears await the next opportunity, but it could be a while, the upside resistance structure is the next target.

Once the upside has been achieved, the attention will then resume back to the downside.

The following is a top-down analysis from the monthly chart, the weekly and daily to the 4-hour from where a trading opportunity to the upside has been mapped out.

Monthly reverse head and shoulders in the making

Weekly structures

Daily chart, mapping the Fibo targets

4-hour chart, looking for bullish confirmations

At this stage, the conditions are still not ideal for entry as bulls would be prudent to wait until the momentum indicators are more bullish and price pulls away from the 21-moving average.

The price will indeed need to move higher towards the Fibo targets, but bulls would be on the lookout for structure lower down below price from where a buy-in at a discount might be achieved on pullbacks.

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

EUR/USD stays weak above 1.1750 ahead of German/ EU PMI data

EUR/USD remains on the back foot above 1.1850 in the European session on Friday, well within striking distance of a nearly one-month low set the previous day. Unabated US Dollar demand and nervousness ahead of the German and Eurozone business PMI data keep the pair undermined.

GBP/USD recovers above 1.3450 after strong UK Retail Sales data

GBP/USD is recovering ground above 1.3450 in European trading on Friday, helped by a modest uptick in the Pound Sterling after a bigger-than-expected increase in the UK Retail Sales for January. However, the further upside appears limited in the pair amid persistent US Dollar strength and ahead of key UK and US data.

Gold rises for third day on geopolitical risks, US data eyed

Gold gains some positive traction for the third consecutive day on Friday. The upside potential, however, seems limited amid the mixed fundamental backdrop. Moreover, traders might opt to wait for the key US macro releases – the Advance Q4 GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – before placing fresh directional bets.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple remain range-bound as breakdown risks rise

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are trading sideways within consolidation ranges on Friday, signaling a lack of directional bias in the broader crypto market. BTC rebounded from key support, and ETH is nearing the lower consolidation boundary, while XRP is holding at its lower trendline boundary.

Hawkish Fed minutes and a market finding its footing

It was green across the board for US Stock market indexes at the close on Wednesday, with most S&P 500 names ending higher, adding 38 points (0.6%) to 6,881 overall. At the GICS sector level, energy led gains, followed by technology and consumer discretionary, while utilities and real estate posted the largest losses.

Official Trump price approaches breakout with mixed signals from traders

Official Trump (TRUMP) is trading at $3.50 at the time of writing, approaching its upper consolidation range. A breakout from this range could open the door for an upside move. On-chain data shows market indecision, with balanced flows between bulls and bears, signaling a lack of clear directional bias.