Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bulls seek acceptance from $1,935 and Fed Chair Powell – Confluence Detector


  • Gold Price stays defensive as traders struggle within jungle to technical levels ahead of key ECB Forum speeches.
  • Upbeat US data, fears of Sino-American tussle prod XAU/USD bulls.
  • Receding fears of recession in US, China allow Gold buyers to remain hopeful.
  • Fed Chair Powell needs to back further rate hikes to convince XAU/USD sellers.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) struggles to defend the corrective bounce ahead of the top-tier central bankers’ speeches at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum. Apart from the cautious mood ahead of the key event, mixed concerns about China, one of the world’s biggest Gold customers, and firmer US data also test the XAU/USD traders.

Hopes of more stimulus from China contrasts with the growing fears of slower economic recovery in Beijing, as well as the fears of the Sino-American tussles due to the latest AI curbs on Chinese Chip manufacturing companies, challenge the Gold traders. On the contrary, a slew of the US data allowed the US Dollar to pare intraday losses and increase the hawkish Fed bets, which in turn prod the XAU/USD bulls of late. Notable among them were the Durable Goods Orders, Conference Board's (CB) Consumer Confidence Index and a few housing numbers.

Looking forward, speeches from ECB President Christine Lagarde, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey at the ECB Forum will be the key for immediate directions of the Gold price. Among them, Fed’s Powell will gain major attention as the US central bank paused rate hike trajectory and teased the US Dollar bears afterward but the policymakers have been hawkish since then.

Also read: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD downside opens up toward $1,885, Fed’s Powell eyed

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

Our Technical Confluence Indicator portrays multiple hurdles for Gold bears, as well as the bulls, as markets prepare for the week's key events.

That said, a convergence of the lower bands of the Bollinger on one-day and four-hour (4H) joins the previous daily low to restrict immediate XAU/USD downside bear $1,912.

Following that, the Pivot Point one-month S1 near $1,904 and the $1,900 round figure, also comprising the Pivot Point one-week S1 and one-day S2, could challenge the Gold sellers.

However, a clear downside break of the Gold price past $1,900 will make the XAU/USD vulnerable to test the early March swing high near $1,860.

Alternatively, middle band of the Bollinger on 4H joins the 100-HMA and Fibonacci 61.8% on one-day to guard immediate recovery of the Gold price near $1,925.

Should the XAU/USD manage to remain firmer past $1,925, the previous monthly low and the upper band of the Bollinger on 4H will act as the last defense of the Gold sellers near $1,935.

Here is how it looks on the tool

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About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

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