|

Gold Price Forecast: $1,915 in sight for XAU/USD ahead of key US Data – Confluence Detector

  • Gold Price seesaws at three-week low after breaking key supports, having wide open space towards the south.
  • Firmer US data, risk-off mood underpin bearish bias about XAU/USD.
  • US ISM Services PMI, Federal Reserve concerns eyed for clear directions.
  • Gold buyers need validation from $1,955 and softer US Dollar, yields.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) remains on the back foot at the lowest level in three weeks despite recent consolidation. In doing so, the precious metal prints a three-day losing streak amid a firmer US Dollar and risk-off mood. It’s worth mentioning that the fears of the US default joined strong US ADP Employment Change to propel the US Dollar and drown the XAU/USD the previous day.

However, the policymakers’ defense of the US Treasury bonds and hopes of witnessing upbeat US economic growth prod the Gold sellers ahead of the mid-tier US data surrounding employment and activities for July. That said, US ISM Services PMI for July and the second quarter readings of Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs gain major attention while determining Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and the US Dollar moves.

Elsewhere, China’s upbeat Caixin Manufacturing PMI also puts a floor under the XAU/USD price and hence needs strong negatives from Beijing to keep the Gold bears hopeful.

Also read: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD upside appears limited amid triangle breakdown

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

As per our Technical Confluence indicator, the Gold Price remains well beneath the key support-turned-resistance around $1,955 comprising the Fibonacci 23.6% on one week and the middle Band of the Bollinger on one-day. The same join the market’s favor for the US Dollar and cautious mood to add credence to the bearish bias about the XAU/USD.

It should be noted that a convergence of the previous weekly low, Pivot Point one-week S1 and Fibonacci 38.2% on one-day restricts the immediate upside of the Gold Price near $1,940.

That said, the Gold Price rally beyond $1,955 could open doors for the bull’s visit to the 100-DMA resistance of around $1,970.

On the flip side, Fibonacci 61.8% on one-month offers immediate support to the Gold Price near $1,935, a break of which appears to have an open space towards the south unless the metal hits the $1,915 support encompassing Pivot Point one-month S1 and the lower band of the Bollinger on the daily chart.

Following that, a slew of technical levels can prod the Gold sellers near $1,915 and $1,910 before directing them to the $1,900 round figure.

Here is how it looks on the tool

fxsoriginal

About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

Author

Anil Panchal

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

More from Anil Panchal
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD dips below 1.3350 with bullish momentum losing steam

The British Pound ticks lower against the US Dollar Monday, attempting to close a seven-day rally, as tensions rise again in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the critical points in the peace process between Washington and Tehran. The GBP/USD pair trades near 1.3340 at the time of writing, down from 1.3387 highs last week, although it maintains a near-term bullish trend intact.

EUR/USD clings to daily gains, still below 1.1450

EUR/USD manages to shrug off the initial bearish tone and advances toward the 1.1440-1.1450 band on Monday, up modestly for the day. Meanwhile, the pair’s mild gains comes on the back of the lack of clear direction in the Greenback in quite an apathetic start to the week.

Gold remains offered below $4,200

Gold comes under fresh downside pressure on Monday, reversing three daily upticks in a row and meeting some initial resistance around the $4,200 mark per troy ounce. Safe-haven demand has shifted toward the US Dollar as renewed tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz weigh on market sentiment, limiting the precious metal's upside.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP pull back amid persistent ETF outflows

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing widespread weakness on Monday, with Bitcoin (BTC) sliding under the $63,000 mark amid ongoing risk aversion.

The US Dollar just beat the Swiss Franc at its own safe-haven game

As the king among safe havens, the Swiss Franc is supposed to benefit from geopolitical shocks such as the Iran war. This time, it didn’t. The Swissie is nearly 6% below January’s peak against the USD after a sharp decline that came along with the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Kevin Warsh offers no policy clues: Why markets still got their answer

Financial markets came to Sintra looking for clues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next move. They largely left with confirmation that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to make those clues much harder to find.