- GBP/JPY jumps to near 194.70 on steady growth in the preliminary UK Composite PMI data for December.
- The BoJ and the BoE are expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday at 0.25% and 4.75%, respectively.
- This week, investors will also focus on the UK employment and inflation data for both the UK and Japan.
The GBP/JPY pair climbs to near 194.70 after the release of the S&P Global/CIPS United Kingdom (UK) PMI data for December. The report showed that the Composite PMI advanced at a steady pace to 50.5. Faster-than-expected expansion in service sector output neutralizes the impact of a sharp decline in manufacturing.
A steady growth in the PMI data has strengthened the Pound Sterling (GBP) against its major peers.
This week, investors brace for high volatility in the Pound Sterling’s price action due to the packed UK economic calendar. They will pay close attention to Tuesday’s employment data for the three months ending October and Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, which will influence market speculation about the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision on Thursday.
According to market expectations, traders expect the BoE to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.75%, with a 7-2 vote split in which seven Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members are expected to support a steady decision on key borrowing rates. BoE members Swati Dhingra and Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden are expected to support an interest rate reduction of 25 bps.
Investors will also pay close attention to BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference for fresh interest rate guidance for 2025. Traders see the BoE reducing interest rates three times next year.
Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is also expected to remain highly volatile this week as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is scheduled to announce the last monetary policy decision of this year along with the BoE on Thursday. Investors expect the BoJ to keep borrowing rates steady at 0.25% as uncertainty over the likely global trade war due to higher import tariffs from incoming United States (US) President-elect Donald Trump has limited its potential of hiking them further.
This week, Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November will also be released, a day after the policy decision.
Economic Indicator
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s eight scheduled annual meetings. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for JPY.
Read more.Next release: Thu Dec 19, 2024 03:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 0.25%
Previous: 0.25%
Source: Bank of Japan
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