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Forex Today: Aussie sold-off into RBA minutes, trade doubts; UK politics, EZ data eyed

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

The market mood was mostly cautious in Tuesday’s Asian trading, fueled by the renewed US-China trade deal doubts, spiraling unrest in Hong Kong and US President Trump’s dig at Fed again. Amid tepid risk sentiment, the US dollar failed to build on its overnight recovery and fell back in the red against most majors, except for the Antipodeans. Meanwhile, Gold prices consolidated the recovery around $ 1470, as markets await fresh cues on the trade front.

Across the G10 currencies, the Aussie was the weakest after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) November meeting’s minutes signaled at the likelihood of more easing in the coming months. AUD/USD dropped sharply to 0.6785 before recovering to 0.6800 levels. The Kiwi also tracked the Aussie’s weakness and traded on the back foot around the 0.64 handle. The Yen regained ground vs. the US dollar amid mixed Asian equities and subdued Treasury yields, as USD/JPY traded around 108.60 region.

Heading into the European open, both the EUR/USD pair and Cable are back on the bids, looking to extend their recent recovery.

Main Topics in Asia

RBNZ's Hawkesby: We need to keep rates at low level for some time

EU trade boss tells UK PM he will get ‘bare bones’ Brexit trade deal or none at all - The Sun

RBA minutes: Board prepared to ease policy further if needed

Japan Economic Minister: Doing everything possible to pass the trade bill in the current Diet

Japan ruling party's Nikai: Need JPY 10 trln extra budget - Jiji

BOJ’s Kuroda: It's possible for BOJ to deepen negative rates beyond -0.1%.

Japan’s Aso: Tax revenue for FY19 may be smaller than expected

Hong Kong university standoff extends, passenger trains temporarily suspended

China-US may still have a long way to go to end the tradewar – Global Times

US Pres. Trump: Told Powell the Fed Rate is set too high relative to the interest rates of other competitor countries

USD/INR slips back below 72.00 as markets react to US-China trade jitters

Key Focus Ahead

Markets brace for a relatively light EUR macro calendar, with the second-tier data lined up for release, including the Eurozone Current Account and Construction Output. From the UK docket, the CBI Industrial Trends Survey – Orders (MoM) for November will drop in at 1100 GMT. Also, in focus will remain the ITV’s political debate, which will shed more light on the UK political scenario going forward.

In the NA session, the US Housing Starts and Building Permits data will be released at 1330 GMT, alongside the Canadian Manufacturing Shipments data. At 1430 GMT, New Zealand’s GDT Price Index will be published and could have some bearing on the NZD price-action. Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly US Crude Stocks data will be closely watched at 2130 GMT.

Apart from the data, the speeches by the Fed official Williams and BOC board member Wilkins will grab some attention. However, the US-China trade-related headlines will continue to remain the main market driver.

EUR/USD: Bulls regain poise, 1.1100 back on sight?

EUR/USD bounces-off lows ahead of 5-DMA support at 1.1055. Bulls back in charge as broad USD recovery stalls amid trade woes, Trump’s tweet. Focus stays on Eurozone/ US data and trade developments ahead of FOMC minutes.

GBP/USD: On a 5-day winning streak ahead of UK’s political debate

Signs of political stability and a successful Brexit keep the GBP/USD pair bulls’ favorite as it takes the bids to 1.2950 while heading into the London open. ITV’s political debate will offer another stage to UK lawmakers after the CBI event.

Fear of Corbyn Outweighs Fear of Brexit

For starters Johnson isn't going to deliver a hard Brexit. It will be a negotiated Brexit. A withdrawal agreement will be signed. I took a close look inside some of the recent polls and there are some interesting trends that explain what's going on.

US Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2019

Three-parts accommodation, one-part trade détente baked into 2020 outlook, but is it enough to avoid a downturn? Fed's Art of War: Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Monday, Nov 18
13:05	EUR ECB's Lane speech
15:00	USD NAHB Housing Market Index	70	71	71
16:30	USD 3-Month Bill Auction	1.540%		1.565%
16:30	USD 6-Month Bill Auction	1.54%		1.55%
21:00	USD Total Net TIC Flows	$-37.6B	$35.9B	$41.9B Revised from $70.5B
21:00	USD Net Long-Term TIC Flows	$49.5B	$20.4B	$-41.2B Revised from $-41.1B
21:45	NZD Producer Price Index - Input (QoQ)	0.9%	0.5%	0.3%
21:45	NZD Producer Price Index - Output (QoQ)	1.0%	0.3%	0.5%
22:00	AUD RBA's Kent speech
Tuesday, Nov 19
00:30	AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
07:00	CHF Trade Balance			4,020M
07:00	CHF Exports (MoM)			20,784M
07:00	CHF Imports (MoM)			16,764M
09:00	EUR Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM)		-0.4%	-0.3%
09:00	EUR Industrial Orders s.a (MoM)		-1.5%	1.1%
09:00	EUR Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY)		-1.0%	-2.2%
09:00	EUR Industrial Orders n.s.a (YoY)		-3.9%	-10.0%
09:00	EUR Current Account n.s.a		€23.4B	€25.7B
09:00	EUR Current Account s.a		€24.5B	€26.6B
09:30	EUR Unemployment Rate		4.93%	5.00%
n/a	EUR 3-Month Letras Auction			-0.581%
n/a	EUR 9-Month Letras Auction			-0.486%
10:00	EUR Construction Output s.a (MoM)		0.70%	-0.46%
10:00	EUR Construction Output w.d.a (YoY)		2.7%	1.2%
11:00	GBP CBI Industrial Trends Survey - Orders (MoM)		-31	-37
13:00	HUF MNB Interest Rate Decision		0.9%	0.9%
13:00	RUB Producer Price Index (MoM)			-0.3%
13:00	RUB Producer Price Index (YoY)			-1.2%
13:30	USD Housing Starts (MoM)		1.320M	1.256M
13:30	USD Building Permits (MoM)		1.385M	1.391M Revised from 1.387M
13:30	USD Housing Starts Change		0.6%	-9.4%
13:30	USD Building Permits Change		0.0%	-2.4% Revised from -2.7%
13:30	EUR Current Account Balance EUR			€-489B
13:30	CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM)		-0.6%	0.8%
13:55	USD Redbook Index (YoY)			5%
13:55	USD Redbook Index (MoM)			0.1%
14:00	USD Fed's Williams speech
14:30	NZD GDT Price Index		1.6%	3.7%
18:15	CAD BoC's Wilkins speech
21:00	KRW Producer Price Index Growth (YoY)		-0.5%	-0.7%
21:00	KRW Producer Price Index Growth (MoM)		0.2%	0.1%
21:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-0.5M
23:30	AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM)			-0.08%
23:50	JPY Exports (YoY)		-7.6%	-5.2%
23:50	JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total		¥301.0B	¥-124.8B Revised from ¥-123.0B
23:50	JPY Imports (YoY)		-16.0%	-1.5%
23:50	JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance		¥-277.5B	¥-97.2B
Wednesday, Nov 20
01:30	CNY PBoC Interest Rate Decision		4.2%	4.2%
24h	BRL Zumbi dos Palmares
n/a	GBP Inflation Report Hearings
24h	MXN Revolution Day
07:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)		0.0%	0.1%
07:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)		-0.4%	-0.1%
08:00	ZAR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		3.9%	4.1%
08:00	ZAR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.2%	0.3%
08:30	SEK Capacity Utilization			0%
09:00	EUR EU Financial Stability Review
09:30	EUR Current Account (YoY)			€1.874B
n/a	EUR 30-y Bond Auction			0.07%
11:00	EUR Current Account Balance			€-0.419B
11:00	ILS Industrial Production (MoM)			-1.4%
11:30	INR M3 Money Supply			10.6%
12:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			9.6%
13:00	RUB Unemployment Rate		4.6%	4.5%
13:30	CAD BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY)		1.9%	1.9%
13:30	CAD BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM)		0.3%	0.0%
13:30	CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.9%	1.9%
13:30	CAD Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM)			0.1%
13:30	CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.3%	-0.4%
15:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change			2.219M
17:00	EUR ECB's Lane speech
19:00	USD FOMC Minutes
23:50	JPY Foreign Bond Investment			¥528.8B
23:50	JPY Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks			¥569.5B
Thursday, Nov 21
00:00	SGD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.6%	0.6%
00:00	SGD Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		0.1%	0.1%
02:00	NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY)		5.5%	4.8%
04:30	JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM)		-0.2%	0.0%
05:30	EUR Unemployment Rate s.a (3M)			3.5%
05:30	EUR Consumer Spending Volume			1.4%
05:30	EUR Consumer Confidence Adj			-1
07:00	TRY Consumer Confidence			57
07:00	DKK Consumer Confidence			1.7
n/a	IDR Bank Indonesia Rate		5%	5%
07:30	CHF Industrial Production (YoY)			4.8%
07:45	EUR Business Climate		100	99
08:10	EUR ECB's Mersch speech
08:30	HKD Consumer Price Index		3.3%	3.2%
09:00	PLN Corporate Sector Wages		6.2%	6.6%
09:30	GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing		£8.600B	£8.734B
n/a	EUR 10-y Obligaciones Auction			0.3%
n/a	EUR 3-y Bond Auction			-0.447%
n/a	EUR 5-y Bond Auction			-0.199%
09:40	EUR ECB's De Guindos speech
12:30	EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
13:00	ZAR SARB Interest Rate Decision		6.5%	6.5%
13:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average		218.182K	217.000K
13:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims		219K	225K
13:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims		1.685M	1.683M
13:30	USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey		7.0	5.6
13:30	CAD ADP Employment Change		53.3K	28.2K
14:00	EUR Consumer Confidence Index			-8
14:00	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$541.1B
15:00	USD Existing Home Sales (MoM)		5.47M	5.38M
15:00	USD Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)		1.4%	-2.2%
15:00	EUR Consumer Confidence		-7.3	-7.6
15:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change		18B	3B
15:30	CAD Financial System Review
16:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction			1.565%
18:00	USD 10-Year Note Auction			1.809%
18:30	EUR ECB's De Guindos speech
20:00	ARS Trade Balance (MoM)			$1,744M
22:00	AUD Commonwealth Bank Composite PMI			50
22:00	AUD Commonwealth Bank Services PMI		53.5	50.1
22:00	AUD Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI		49.8	50.0
23:30	JPY National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY)		0.5%	0.5%
23:30	JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY)		0.3%	0.2%
23:30	JPY National CPI ex-Fresh Food (YoY)		0.4%	0.3%
Friday, Nov 22
00:30	JPY Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI		48.7	48.4
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		1%	1%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY)		0.5%	0.5%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.1%	0.1%
08:15	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		50.8	50.7
08:15	EUR Markit Services PMI		53.0	52.9
08:15	EUR Markit PMI Composite		52.8	52.6
08:30	EUR Markit PMI Composite		49.4	48.9
08:30	EUR Markit Services PMI		52.0	51.6
08:30	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		42.9	42.1
08:30	EUR ECB's President Lagarde speech
09:00	PLN Industrial Output (YoY)		2.6%	5.6%
09:00	PLN Producer Price Index (YoY)		0.2%	0.9%
09:00	EUR Markit PMI Composite		50.9	50.6
09:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		46.4	45.9
09:00	EUR Markit Services PMI		52.5	52.2
11:30	INR Bank Loan Growth			8.9%
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$447.81B
12:00	BRL Mid-month Inflation		0.04%	0.09%
12:00	MXN 1st half-month Inflation		0.65%	0.40%
12:00	MXN 1st half-month Core Inflation		0.16%	0.13%
13:00	EUR German Buba President Weidmann speech
13:30	CAD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)		0.1%	-0.2%
13:30	CAD Retail Sales (MoM)		-0.1%	-0.1%
14:45	USD Markit Manufacturing PMI		51.5	51.3
14:45	USD Markit Services PMI		51.0	50.6
14:45	USD Markit PMI Composite		51.9	50.9
15:00	USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index		95.7	95.7
15:00	JPY Labor Thanksgiving Day
16:00	USD Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity		9	8
18:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			674
20:00	COP Interest rate		4.25%	4.25%
20:30	USD CFTC Gold NC Net Positions			$267.1K
20:30	USD CFTC Oil NC Net Positions			424.6K
20:30	USD CFTC USD NC Net Positions			$10K
20:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC Net Positions			£-28.1K
20:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC Net Positions			¥-35K
20:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC Net Positions			€-57.7K
20:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC Net Positions			$-40.8K

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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