Forex Today: A quiet Asian affair; all eyes on US Non-farm Payrolls


Forex today witnessed a quite Asian affair on the final trading day of this week, as a sense of caution prevailed ahead of the highly influential US labor market report. Most majors hovered in tight trading ranges, having ignored upbeat macro news and some buying interest seen around the US dollar.

The USD/JPY pair remains flat-lined around 107.85, as the Yen failed to benefit from a jump in the Japanese household spendings. The AUD/USD pair also kept its range trade intact below the two-month tops of 0.7049, unimpressed by a pick-up in the Australian construction output. The Kiwi traded on the back below the 0.67 handle amid weaker oil prices. However, the further upside remained capped in the Antipodeans, as markets remained jittery amid escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions and looming US-China trade talks.

Among the European currencies, both the Euro and the pound clung to its recent trading ranges while Gold prices on Comex consolidated around 1420 levels amid mixed Asian equities and negative Treasury yields.

Main Topics in Asia

WTI is at a crossroads as investors weigh both sides of fundamentals

UK PM Candidate Johnson: Lavish spending plans would work after no-deal Brexit – The Guardian

US shouldn’t set unfair conditions to prevent China breaking promises – Global Times

Australia loosens mortgage lending rules in boost to economy - Reuters

US Dollar still a force to reckon with at least for this year - Reuters Poll

Asian stocks tentative ahead of US payrolls data

All eyes on Huawei ban as US and China try to break trade war deadlock – SCMP

Dollar Index technical analysis: Trapped in a narrow range ahead of NFP

UK Conservative politicians prepare for snap election in October - FT

BOJ’s Amamiya: Won't hesitate to ease policy if momentum to hit price target is disrupted

USD/INR technical analysis: Dollar catches early bid, focus on India's budget

Key Focus Ahead

Markets gear up for the highly-anticipated US June Non-Farm Payrolls data due to be released later today at 1230 GMT alongside the US hourly wages and the jobless rate. The US jobs data is crucial to the markets as it is seen as the main determinant for a July Fed rate cut. The headlines numbers are seen higher at 160k vs. 75k booked in May. A disappointing figure would bolster the dovish Fed expectations, as it would suggest that the US labor market is losing steam.

Further, the Canadian employment data will also grab some attention at the same time. The Canadian Ivey PMI for June will drop in at 1400 GMT, followed by the Fed Monetary Policy Report at 1500 GMT.

In the European session, the main focus will be on the German May Factory Orders will be reported at 0600 GMT, which are expected to drop sharply across the time horizon. The UK lacks first-tier macro news and hence, the GBP traders will take cues from the Halifax House Prices data slated for release at 0730 GMT. At 0800 GMT, the speech by the ECB Vice President De Guindos will offer further trading impetus to the shared currency.

Apart from the macro events, the developments surrounding the US-China trade talks, Iranian geopolitical tensions and UK political scenario will be watched for any impact on the broader market sentiment.

When are German factory orders and how could they affect EUR/USD?

A weaker-than-expected data will likely bolster fears of a deeper economic slowdown in the Eurozone’s biggest economy and reinforce expectations of European Central Bank rate cuts, sending the EUR/USD lower toward the 100-day MA support, currently at 1.1260. 

GBP/USD: Investors show less reaction to UK politics ahead of US NFP

GBP/USD follows the recent tendency of no change ahead of the US traders’ return from the Independence Day holiday, also amid cautious sentiment prevailing prior to the key employment statistics from the US. 

Gold technical analysis: 21/50-HMA, 5-day old support-line limit immediate declines

Technical indicators seem losing positive momentum, but strong downside supports question the declines. An upside clearance of $1438.65/1440 becomes necessary to aim for May 2013 high around $1474.

Nonfarm Payrolls preview: 4th of July fireworks?

The US will present this Friday the June Nonfarm Payroll report. According to analysts forecast, the country is expected to have added 160K new jobs in the month, following 75K added in May. 

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Saturday, Jun 29
24h
 
 
Sunday, Jun 30
24h
 
 
Monday, Jul 01
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
Thursday, Jul 04
24h
 
 
Friday, Jul 05
05:00
 
95.5
102.1
05:00
 
95.7
95.9
06:00
 
-0.1%
0.3%
06:00
 
-5.7%
-5.3%
07:30
 
5.9%
5.2%
07:30
 
-0.2%
0.5%
08:00
 
 
12:30
 
160K
75K
12:30
 
34.4
34.4
12:30
 
3.2%
3.1%
12:30
 
3.6%
3.6%
12:30
 
0.3%
0.2%
12:30
 
 
62.8%
12:30
 
 
65.7%
12:30
 
10.0K
27.7K
12:30
 
 
2.55%
12:30
 
5.5%
5.4%
14:00
 
 
61.8
14:00
 
55.0
55.9
15:00
 
 
Sunday, Jul 07
07:30
 
 
08:00
 
¥3.095T
¥3.101T
23:50
 
2.8%
2.6%
23:50
 
¥1,688.6B
¥1,707.4B
23:50
 
-6.3%
5.2%

 

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