Forex today witnessed a quite Asian affair on the final trading day of this week, as a sense of caution prevailed ahead of the highly influential US labor market report. Most majors hovered in tight trading ranges, having ignored upbeat macro news and some buying interest seen around the US dollar.
The USD/JPY pair remains flat-lined around 107.85, as the Yen failed to benefit from a jump in the Japanese household spendings. The AUD/USD pair also kept its range trade intact below the two-month tops of 0.7049, unimpressed by a pick-up in the Australian construction output. The Kiwi traded on the back below the 0.67 handle amid weaker oil prices. However, the further upside remained capped in the Antipodeans, as markets remained jittery amid escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions and looming US-China trade talks.
Among the European currencies, both the Euro and the pound clung to its recent trading ranges while Gold prices on Comex consolidated around 1420 levels amid mixed Asian equities and negative Treasury yields.
Main Topics in Asia
WTI is at a crossroads as investors weigh both sides of fundamentals
UK PM Candidate Johnson: Lavish spending plans would work after no-deal Brexit – The Guardian
US shouldn’t set unfair conditions to prevent China breaking promises – Global Times
Australia loosens mortgage lending rules in boost to economy - Reuters
US Dollar still a force to reckon with at least for this year - Reuters Poll
Asian stocks tentative ahead of US payrolls data
All eyes on Huawei ban as US and China try to break trade war deadlock – SCMP
Dollar Index technical analysis: Trapped in a narrow range ahead of NFP
UK Conservative politicians prepare for snap election in October - FT
BOJ’s Amamiya: Won't hesitate to ease policy if momentum to hit price target is disrupted
USD/INR technical analysis: Dollar catches early bid, focus on India's budget
Key Focus Ahead
Markets gear up for the highly-anticipated US June Non-Farm Payrolls data due to be released later today at 1230 GMT alongside the US hourly wages and the jobless rate. The US jobs data is crucial to the markets as it is seen as the main determinant for a July Fed rate cut. The headlines numbers are seen higher at 160k vs. 75k booked in May. A disappointing figure would bolster the dovish Fed expectations, as it would suggest that the US labor market is losing steam.
Further, the Canadian employment data will also grab some attention at the same time. The Canadian Ivey PMI for June will drop in at 1400 GMT, followed by the Fed Monetary Policy Report at 1500 GMT.
In the European session, the main focus will be on the German May Factory Orders will be reported at 0600 GMT, which are expected to drop sharply across the time horizon. The UK lacks first-tier macro news and hence, the GBP traders will take cues from the Halifax House Prices data slated for release at 0730 GMT. At 0800 GMT, the speech by the ECB Vice President De Guindos will offer further trading impetus to the shared currency.
Apart from the macro events, the developments surrounding the US-China trade talks, Iranian geopolitical tensions and UK political scenario will be watched for any impact on the broader market sentiment.
When are German factory orders and how could they affect EUR/USD?
A weaker-than-expected data will likely bolster fears of a deeper economic slowdown in the Eurozone’s biggest economy and reinforce expectations of European Central Bank rate cuts, sending the EUR/USD lower toward the 100-day MA support, currently at 1.1260.
GBP/USD: Investors show less reaction to UK politics ahead of US NFP
GBP/USD follows the recent tendency of no change ahead of the US traders’ return from the Independence Day holiday, also amid cautious sentiment prevailing prior to the key employment statistics from the US.
Gold technical analysis: 21/50-HMA, 5-day old support-line limit immediate declines
Technical indicators seem losing positive momentum, but strong downside supports question the declines. An upside clearance of $1438.65/1440 becomes necessary to aim for May 2013 high around $1474.
Nonfarm Payrolls preview: 4th of July fireworks?
The US will present this Friday the June Nonfarm Payroll report. According to analysts forecast, the country is expected to have added 160K new jobs in the month, following 75K added in May.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds below 1.0750 ahead of key US data
EUR/USD trades in a tight range below 1.0750 in the European session on Friday. The US Dollar struggles to gather strength ahead of key PCE Price Index data, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, and helps the pair hold its ground.
USD/JPY stays firm above 156.00 after BoJ Governor Ueda's comments
USD/JPY stays firm above 156.00 after surging above this level on the Bank of Japan's decision to leave the policy settings unchanged. BoJ Governor said weak Yen was not impacting prices but added that they will watch FX developments closely.
Gold price oscillates in a range as the focus remains glued to the US PCE Price Index
Gold price struggles to attract any meaningful buyers amid the emergence of fresh USD buying. Bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer amid sticky inflation help revive the USD demand.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
US core PCE inflation set to signal firm price pressures as markets delay Federal Reserve rate cut bets
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen as the more influential measure of inflation in terms of Fed positioning. The index is forecast to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in March, matching February’s increase.