GBP/USD: Investors show less reaction to UK politics ahead of US NFP


  • Political headlines from the UK gain less attention as markets await the US employment data.
  • Absence of the US traders and fewer catalysts also limit trade sentiment.

GBP/USD follows the recent tendency of no change ahead of the US traders’ return from the Independence Day holiday, also amid cautious sentiment prevailing prior to the key employment statistics from the US. As a result, the Cable takes the rounds to 1.2582 while heading into the London open on Friday.

Global investors remain on the sidelines despite the UK political headlines continue. Among them, The Guardian’s news report conveying the promise of a lavish spending plan by the British Prime Minister (PM) candidate Boris Johnson and Conservatives’ preparing for a snap election in October, via FT, might have been important in an otherwise case.

Additionally, news reports from China’s SCMP that the dragon nation might not respect recently agreed trade truce unless the US lifts bans off the Huawei were also largely ignored.

Even so, Reuters released strategists’ poll expecting 5% upside of the Cable.

Moving on, the UK Halifax House Prices seem an immediate catalyst to follow ahead of all the important June month jobs report from the US.

The British house prices may rise to 5.9% from 5.2% over 3month/year basis but expected declines of -0.2% versus +0.5% prior on an MoM basis during June can weigh on the British Pound (GBP).

On the other hand, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) could help maintain the three-month average beyond 150K by matching market forecast of 160K versus 75K earlier. Further, Average Hourly Earnings could rise 3.2% from 3.1% on a yearly format but no change is expected in 3.6% Unemployment Rate.

In addition to data, news reports concerning the US-China trade truce and the British future will also entertain market players while going forward.

Technical Analysis

A downside break of recent lows surrounding 1.2560 seems a trigger for the fresh south-run to 1.2506 whereas 1.2600, late-June low around 1.2660 can cap the quote’s advances toward 1.2735 resistance.

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