EUR/USD refreshes annual lows on Trump's clean sweep

EUR/USD resumes its downside journey after a short-lived recovery in North American trading hours on Thursday after the release of the United States (US) economic data. The US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 8 have come in surprisingly lower. Individuals claiming jobless benefits for the first time were 217K against the prior release of 221K. Economists expected them to come higher at 223K.

Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) data accelerated at a faster-than-expected pace in October. Annual headline and core PPI rose by 2.4% and 3.1%, respectively. The month-on-month headline and core PPI grew by 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, as expected.

The major currency pair was already downbeat and extended its losing streak for the fifth trading day on Thursday. The major currency pair has faced an intense sell-off as the US Dollar (USD) continues to enjoy upside momentum, being one of the major beneficiaries of President-elected Donald Trump’s win in the United States (US) presidential election. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, climbs to near 106.80, the highest level seen since November 1, 2023.

It will be easy for Trump to implement the agenda of lower taxes on businesses and workers, as well as high import tariffs, as Republicans have ensured control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, according to the Associated Press. 

An increase in import tariffs would increase the demand for domestically produced goods and services, which would boost inflationary pressures that limit the potential of the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates faster and deeper.

The Greenback rose sharply on Wednesday after the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October. The inflation report showed that price pressures grew expectedly on a monthly as well as annual basis, boosting expectations of interest rate cuts in the December meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50% next month increased to 83% from 59% a day before.

In Thursday’s session, investors will pay close attention to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary in a panel discussion hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas at 20:00 GMT. Market participants would like to know his stance on December’s monetary policy decision and the impact of Trump's policies in the medium and longer term.

Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD stays under pressure on Euro's underperformance

• EUR/USD remains on the backfoot amid Euro’s (EUR) more than a week-long underperformance against its major peers. The Euro faces pressure from Trump’s victory in the US presidential election and the collapse of the three-party coalition government in Germany after Chancellor Olaf Scholz sacked Finance Minister Christian Linder on November 6.
• The implementation of Trump’s tariffs on the Eurozone is expected to dent its export sector significantly, which could weaken its overall Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and result in further depreciation in the Euro.
• Big banks, including JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank, reckon a drop to parity could happen, depending on the extent of tariffs. Tax cuts could also fuel US inflation and limit Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, making the Dollar potentially more attractive than the Euro, Reuters reported.
• Meanwhile, expectations for the European inflation remaining under control have prompted expectations of more interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB Governing Council Member and Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn commented on Tuesday that the Deposit Rate could decline the so-called neutral rate in the first half of 2025. According to the ECB staff, the neutral rate is around 2% or 2.25%.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD stays below all short-to-long-term EMAs

EUR/USD slides to its lowest since 16 October 1, 2023, near 1.0500. The major currency pair weakened after breaking below the April 16 low of 1.0600. The outlook of the shared currency pair has become bearish as all short to long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are declining. 

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) drops to nearly 30.00, adding to evidence of more weakness in the near term.

Looking down, the pair is expected to find a cushion near the October low of 1.0450. On the flip side, the round-level resistance of 1.0700 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls.