EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bouncing from fresh 2024 lows, sellers still at the driver’s seat

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0537

• The Eurozone confirmed Q3 Gross Domestic Product at 0.4% QoQ.
• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde due to speak later in the day.
• EUR/USD bounced sharply from fresh yearly lows but remains bearish in the long run.

The EUR/USD pair fell to fresh 2024 lows and currently trades at levels last seen in October 2023. Back then, EUR/USD bottomed at 1.0447, a potential bearish target as demand for the US Dollar (USD) prevails.

Movements across financial boards revolve around the latest United States (US) political developments. Former President Donald Trump stood victorious in the 2024 presidential election and the Republican party also seized control of Congress. The latest news on the matter showed the party has secured enough seats to control the House after already securing the Senate last week.

Trump’s victory weighs particularly in Asian markets, with Chinese shares under pressure since the election. Other than that, tepid local data hits the Asian giant, a discouraging combo that undermines stocks demand in the region.

Meanwhile, unimpressive European data weighs on the Euro. The Eurozone released the second estimate of the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), confirming the 0.4% gain in the three months to September. At the same time, the EU reported Industrial Production fell 2% on a monthly basis in September and by 2.8% from a year earlier, much worse than anticipated.

The American session will bring Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended November 8 and October Producer Price Index (PPI). Federal Reserve speakers will be on the wires, with Chair Jerome Powell due to participate in a panel discussion titled "Global Perspectives" at an event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Additionally, European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde will also make a public appearance.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair trades around 1.0530 after bottoming at 1.0495, bouncing amid some profit-taking. Nevertheless, technical readings in the daily chart maintain the risk skewed to the downside. The pair is down for a fifth consecutive day, moving further away from a firmly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which runs below flat 100 and 200 SMAs. Technical indicators, in the meantime, reached oversold readings, partially losing their downward strength.

In the near term, the current advance seems corrective and may continue in the upcoming sessions. Technical indicators in the 4-hour chart turned north at extreme levels, still far from signaling an interim bottom. At the same time, a bearish 20 SMA accelerates south, currently at around 1.0600. The longer moving averages also head lower, far below the shorter one, indicating limited buying interest.  

Support levels: 1.0495 1.0450 1.0410

Resistance levels: 1.0560 1.0600 1.0645

(This story was corrected on November 14 at 13:58 GMT to say in the first paragraph that the EUR/USD pair fell to fresh 2024 lows, not highs)