- XRP price rallied 20% after a weekend selloff.
- The crypto market could respond negatively to the recent missile strikes affecting Poland.
- Invalidation of the bearish thesis is a breach above $0.46
XRP price could suffer an unexpected blow as the war between Russia and Ukraine has broadened into Polish territory. Key levels have been defined to guage XRP's next potential move.
XRP price is in a vulnerable state
XRP price currently auctions at $0.39 as the bulls have pulled off a second recovery rally of recouping 20% losses from the week prior. During the third trading week of November, the market's vulnerability to a flash crash has increased as war becomes a re-occurring narrative within the ecosystem.
On November 15, a fatal explosion occurred in Poland near the borders of Ukraine. The explosion reportedly caused two fatalities and triggered NATO to host an emergency meeting. The crypto market has witnessed a correlation to unfortunate world events in the past, and the technicals may already suggest the move is coming.
XRPUSDT 4-Hour Chart
XRP price is attempting to find support above the recently breached 8-day exponential moving average. A bearish harami candle is witnessed near the top of the trend, which has a lower high than the previous retaliation rally on November 10.
The Volume Profile Indicator shows fewer transactions during the current 20% rally than the previous retaliation, as well as the 35% death drop witnessed earlier in the month. The Relative Strength Index is at a level that justifies bears entering the market.
Considering these factors, the XRP price may retest the lows near $0.31 in the coming days. Invalidation of the bearish thesis could arise if the bulls reclaim the $0.46 barrier. In doing so, an additional uptrend hike toward the monthly high near $0.51 could occur. Such a move would result in a 30% increase from the current XRP price.
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