Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Is BTC ready for a new all-time high?

Bitcoin (BTC) price is showing a positive outlook despite recent stabilization at around $71,000. According to on-chain data, whales are returning with strong buying power, US spot Bitcoin ETFs are increasing, and the absence of FOMO among investors suggests that Bitcoin is poised to set new all-time highs.

Bitcoin whales accumulating

Data from CryptoQuant Total Whale Holdings and Monthly Percentage Change refers to the combined amount of Bitcoin held by large investors or institutions, often known as whales, due to their substantial influence on the cryptocurrency market. 

The Monthly percentage Change reflects the percentage shift in these holdings over a one-month period. This metric is closely observed to assess market sentiment and potential future market movements, as the actions of these major holders can significantly impact Bitcoin's price through their buying or selling activities.

In Bitcoin’s case, the 30-day percentage change increased from 2.79% to 5.08% from May 6 to June 6, the highest in two months. This 2.29 percentage point increase indicates that the whales are returning with strong buying power once again.

BTC Total Whale Holdings and Monthly Percentage Change chart

According to CryptoQuant data for Bitcoin ETFs, Historical Bitcoin Holdings Trend (Aggregated) shows a historical overview of the total amount of Bitcoin held by all ETF issuers combined. Increases or decreases in the aggregated Bitcoin holdings of ETFs may indicate shifts in institutional demand for Bitcoin exposure or changes in investment strategies.

US spot Bitcoin  ETFs have also seen a significant uptick, with holdings increasing from 819.02K on May 2 to 875.5K on June 6, signaling growing confidence in Bitcoin's long-term prospects among investors. 

BTC Etfs Historical Bitcoin Holdings Trend (Aggregated) chart

Santiment's BTC Social Volume data offers valuable insights into the level of discussion and mentions of Bitcoin across diverse social media platforms, forums, and online communities. It tracks the volume of posts, comments, tweets, and other interactions related to Bitcoin over a specific period. 

According to BTC’s Social Volume indicator, recent observations suggest that the significance of Bitcoin price reaching $70,000 is not nearly as substantial for investors as it was three months ago, on March 11, when it crossed $70,000 for the first time. This lack of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is generally perceived as a positive sign because it indicates more sustainable and rational market behavior and reduces the risk of speculative bubbles and price crashes. Thus Bitcoin may have the potential to break through with less crowd euphoria than what previously marked market tops.

The combination of increasing whale buying power, the uptick in US spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the decreasing Social Volume collectively indicate the robustness of Bitcoin bulls, suggesting their ability to support the pricer in the current bull market towards the all-time high registered in March.

Read more: Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC likely to provide another buying opportunity

BTC not out of woods yet

Despite the recent rally in Bitcoin price, the bearish market structure remains intact. A breakout above the May 21 swing high of $71,958 will produce a higher high, signaling that the bulls are attempting a comeback. Such a development could see the pioneer crypto aim to revisit the current all-time high of $73,794. But if bulls are successful in flipping the Momentum Reversal Indicator's breakout level of $74,780, it would open the path for a 7% rally to the next key psychological level and a new ATH of $80,0000. 

Coupled with positive sentiment from on-chain metrics and whales accumulating BTC, a new ATH is highly likely. 

BTC/USD 1-day chart

If there is a market-wide crash that knocks Bitcoin price to produce a lower low below $67,151, it would invalidate the short-term bullish trend. This development could trigger a move toward the $60,000 psychological level. If buyers fail to defend this critical level, leading to the production of a lower low on a daily or higher timeframe, it would invalidate the bullish outlook. Such a pessimistic move could catalyze a selling spree that could potentially knock BTC down to $56,196, which is the midpoint of the $53,015 to $59,313 imbalance.