Bitcoin price set to be on a tear as event risks are fading into next week

Bitcoin (BTC) price has long been tied and changed by several tail risks, plaguing bulls and triggering short-term profit-taking. However, this week proved to be a big game-changer with BTC price set to eke out its best week for April and setting the tone going into next week as more and more tail risks are diminishing and tailwinds are starting to pick up speed. Under that scenario, Bitcoin price is set to break above $50,000.00 next week and, in the process, reclaim a few critical thresholds to watch for.

BTC price sees investor sentiment rising as tail risks fade

Bitcoin price is set to start a rally of weekly gains as this week the rally got jumpstarted on some positive elements. The positive news came on Thursday with a clear winner in the Macron-Le Pen debate pointing to a victory yet again for Macron and, in the process, eased the dollar strength as risk premiums were being priced out of the risk trade. With that move, investors not only became bolder again, but the dollar weakness opened up more room to the upside with rather exponential gains. 

BTC price needs to open on Monday above $44,088.73 as an election victory for Macron will make the Greenback backoff further, opening up more upside potential. Add to that the fact that news out of Ukraine is becoming more and more second-tier and fading a bit to the background, showing that talks are still ongoing and a solution could still be brokered any day now, as the Russian military actions are now only focused on the west and no longer on the hole of Ukraine. A stead rally on this momentum will push BTC price above $50,019.29 by the end of next week, and within that process, have acquired the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the psychological $50,000 area as support for any further upticks towards $54,000.00.

BTC/USD weekly chart

The most significant event risk over the weekend comes, of course, with the French election. Should Le Pen, as a far-right candidate, win the election from Macron, expect to see a significant shift and shock through the markets on Sunday evening and Monday morning in the ASIA PAC session. First, the initial reaction will be risk-off, with equity markets and cryptocurrencies on the back foot and safe havens such as treasuries bid. Investors will try to reassess the new situation in the already divided euro bloc. Expect BTC price to be priced in as all occurred gains from this week lost with price action back sub $40,000 towards $38,000.00, near $36,709.19.