The Volatility Markets Pocket Risk Department uses statistical methods to estimate a security's worst case scenario. This article will address the worst case scenario price and payout for Euro EURUSD for the next 1Y.

Chart

Executive summary

  • The last spot price was € 0.9875.

  • Over the past 20 days, the high was € 1.0152 and the low was €0.9831.

  • Over the past 20 days, historical volatility performed at 13.4849 % This roughly translates into an expectation of a 0.8428% move in price per day.

  • If markets remain as volatile as they have been, we are 95% sure that the price won't trade higher to the €1.2769 level within the next 1Y.

  • If markets remain as volatile as they have been, we are 95% sure that the price won't trade lower to the €0.6981 level within the next 1Y.

  • If markets remain as volatile as they have been, we are 95% sure that the price won't make or lose more than 29.3063% within the next 1Y.

  • The largest drawdown in the dataset was -1.5134%.

  • The largest up day in the dataset was 1.3771%.

Market skew

Chart

  • The largest drawdown in the dataset was -1.5134%.

  • The largest up day in the dataset was 1.3771%.

Worst case scenario price

Chart

  • If markets remain as volatile as they have been, we are 95% sure that the price won't trade higher to the €1.2769 level within the next 1Y.

  • If markets remain as volatile as they have been, we are 95% sure that the price won't trade lower to the €0.6981 level within the next 1Y.

  • If markets remain as volatile as they have been, we are 95% sure that the price won't make or lose more than 29.3063% within the next 1Y.

Worst case scenario payout

Chart

If markets remain as volatile as they have been, we are 95% sure that the price won't make or lose more than 29.3063% within the next 1Y

Volatility Markets provides trend following trade ideas for momentum traders. The Volatility Markets Newswire measures the direction and acceleration of a security and then structures a trade idea to capitalize on the trend. While trends have been shown to exist in markets over the past 100 years, they are no guarantee of future asset prices. You should take these ideas lightly and at your own risk.

Feed news Join Telegram

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD drops below 0.9750 after upbeat US PMI data

EUR/USD drops below 0.9750 after upbeat US PMI data

Following a brief consolidation period, EUR/USD came under bearish pressure and dropped below 0.9750 during the American session on Friday. Better than expected Manufacturing and Services PMI figures from the US provided a boost to the dollar, further weighing on the pair.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD renews multi-decade below 1.0900

GBP/USD renews multi-decade below 1.0900

After having recovered toward 1.1100 earlier in the day, GBP/USD turned south in the American session and touched its lowest level since 1985 below 1.0900. The PMI data from the US showed that the private sector activity recovered in September, fueling another leg higher in DXY.

GBP/USD News

Gold falls below $1,650, looks to post weekly losses

Gold falls below $1,650, looks to post weekly losses

Pressured by the renewed dollar strength on upbeat US PMI figures, gold lost its recovery momentum and dropped below $1,650. Meanwhile, the 10-year US T-bond yield is up nearly 1%, forcing XAU/USD to stay on the backfoot heading into the weekend.

Gold News

BTC makes a bullish comeback amid regulatory tension, but lacks confirmation

BTC makes a bullish comeback amid regulatory tension, but lacks confirmation

Bitcoin price has produced three consecutive lower lows since September 7, but at the same time, the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) has shown a positive rise demonstrating a lack of underlying bearish power.

Read more

TSLA suffers as yields continue to dominate

TSLA suffers as yields continue to dominate

Tesla (TSLA) reacted poorly to the latest central bank developments with the stock falling 4% on Thursday. Main indices were not as badly hit with the S&P 500 losing less than 1% and the Nasdaq just over 1%.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures