Barry Weinstein
Volatility Markets Newswire
The Volatility Markets Pocket Risk Department uses statistical methods to estimate a security's worst case scenario. This article will address the worst case scenario price and payout for Euro EURUSD for the next 1Y.
Executive summary
-
The last spot price was € 0.9875.
-
Over the past 20 days, the high was € 1.0152 and the low was €0.9831.
-
Over the past 20 days, historical volatility performed at 13.4849 % This roughly translates into an expectation of a 0.8428% move in price per day.
-
If markets remain as volatile as they have been, we are 95% sure that the price won't trade higher to the €1.2769 level within the next 1Y.
-
If markets remain as volatile as they have been, we are 95% sure that the price won't trade lower to the €0.6981 level within the next 1Y.
-
If markets remain as volatile as they have been, we are 95% sure that the price won't make or lose more than 29.3063% within the next 1Y.
-
The largest drawdown in the dataset was -1.5134%.
-
The largest up day in the dataset was 1.3771%.
Market skew
-
The largest drawdown in the dataset was -1.5134%.
-
The largest up day in the dataset was 1.3771%.
Worst case scenario price
-
If markets remain as volatile as they have been, we are 95% sure that the price won't trade higher to the €1.2769 level within the next 1Y.
-
If markets remain as volatile as they have been, we are 95% sure that the price won't trade lower to the €0.6981 level within the next 1Y.
-
If markets remain as volatile as they have been, we are 95% sure that the price won't make or lose more than 29.3063% within the next 1Y.
Worst case scenario payout
If markets remain as volatile as they have been, we are 95% sure that the price won't make or lose more than 29.3063% within the next 1Y
Volatility Markets provides trend following trade ideas for momentum traders. The Volatility Markets Newswire measures the direction and acceleration of a security and then structures a trade idea to capitalize on the trend. While trends have been shown to exist in markets over the past 100 years, they are no guarantee of future asset prices. You should take these ideas lightly and at your own risk.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD advances toward 1.0800 ahead of US NFP
EUR/USD is on a gradual advance toward 1.0800 in the early European morning. Positive risk sentiment on Congressional approval of the US debt limit suspension and dovish Fed expectations is exerting bearish pressure on the US Dollar. US Nonfarm Payrolls awaited.
GBP/USD grinds above 1.2500 as BoE vs. Fed play intensifies, US jobs report eyed
GBP/USD aptly portrays the pre-NFP anxiety in markets during early Friday. In doing so, the Cable pair also justifies the latest challenges to the upside momentum flagged from London.
Gold eyes a sustained move above $1,992 on weak US Nonfarm Payrolls Premium
Gold price is treading water above the $1,970 level on the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) day, as the US Dollar (USD) is licking its wounds, in the face of an upbeat market mood and mixed US economic data releases.
Pro-XRP lawyer: Ripple losing the SEC lawsuit might be a blessing in disguise
XRP price made a decent recovery in the month of May, fueled by Ripple's chances of winning the lawsuit it is facing against the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC). The cryptocurrency has amassed a huge base of supporters, which might potentially expand further regardless of the outcome.
The US labour market: A closer look at the data
The US will release its official labour market report on Friday, and traders are busy. The fast-growing indicator for new vacancies rose again in recent years, reaching over 10 million in April, defying the expected drop from 9.7 million to 9.4 million.