Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
This week we present one technical view: EUR/SEK to edge higher towards 9.9740; support at 9.0560.
Strategy summary: EUR/SEK to edge higher towards 9.9740, support at 9.2690/9.2215.
The recovery from the 13 August 2012 low at 8.1740 reached 9.7250 on 16 December 2014 before stalling. However, the longer-term structure remains bullish and short-term weakness is expected to attract fresh buying interest near a confluence of support in the 9.2690/9.2215 area. This area consists of the 28 January prior reaction low, an approximate 2-year rising trendline (drawn from the 8.2540/9.0560 lows) and the 50- week moving average (MA).
The prior uptrend is expected to resume in due course, and back above 9.7250 will open the way for a test of the 21 May 2010 reaction high/50% retracement of the March 2009 – August 2012 fall at 9.9740/9.9795. Through here, a rally can extend towards the 61.8% retracement level at 10.4060.
It would take a breach of the 14 October 2014 low at 9.0560 to threaten the wider bullish tone, although buyers may look to re-group closer to the 200-week MA.
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