Weekly Overview on Majors' Price Action

EURUSD - Hitting new lows

EURUSD continued to hit new lows last week. Before the official release of the NFP, the price had already dropped below the 1.0900 support. Bulls pushed the price back to retest the round number level, but the corrective movement finished fast, because of the values of the US labor market indicators. The NFP was released at a value of 271K, the Unemployment Rate dropped to 5.0%, while the Hourly Average Earnings increased by 0.4%. These created a better context for the Fed to hike rates next month.

I have seen that the EURUSD’s price action respects round number levels. The price hit a new low very close to 1.0700 after the NFP release from last Friday. Now the price bounced back. Bulls might want to push it back to 1.0800. While a break above this level is expected to send the price to 1.0850, another bounce down would signal a drop below 1.0800, targeting 1.0700.

AUDUSD - Descending Channel

The price action of AUDUSD has been respecting a down channel for the past month. When the price hit the down trend line bounced back down. The drop, triggered by the fundamental data coming from both Australia and US, stopped only on the lower line of the channel. The price found a local support at 0.7022.

From the opening of today’s session the Australian dollar managed to gain back some ground, retesting the resistance, ex support, from 0.7065. This up move looks more like a Flag price pattern. If the pattern will be confirmed by a break below the lower line, I will be expecting a drop towards 0.7000. On the other hand, a break above the current resistance level could actually signal a rally towards 0.7100.

USDJPY - Waiting for a dip

The price of USDJPY has rallied again. It broke above the upper line of the range, I told you about in my previous analysis and is now very close to reaching the full target from 124.00. The new up trend drawn on the chart may end up being an up channel.

The price has reached the rejection line of this possible ascending channel. Though currently there are no strong bearish signals, I am expecting for a pullback an retest of 123.00 before continuing towards the next round number level and full target of the range. A break below 123.00 could signal that bears are pushing the price towards the next local support from 122.00.

GBPJPY - A different view

I have the feeling that the view on GBPJPY will soon change. Let us look at the current price action of this currency pair. The price has drawn an uptrend and on the 6th of November it bounced back up again from the trend line. The rally brought it back to 186.50. This level is a 61.8 retrace out of the entire drop.

On a 4 hour chart a Shooting Star candlestick pattern seems to be drawn. If it will be confirmed, I would expect it to signal a drop in the price which would target the area between the main trend line and the round number level of 185.00. A close on this time frame above the current resistance, 186.50, would signal a possible rally towards the upper side of the channel.