Fundamental Analysis, September 15th 2014

Executive Summary

This week’s U.S. economic calendar highlights begins with Monday’s release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index (+16.4), Capacity Utilization (79.3%) and Industrial Production (+0.4%). Tuesday will feature PPI (+0.1%), Core PPI (+0.1%) and TIC Long Term Purchases (+24.3B). On Wednesday, Core CPI (+0.2%), CPI (+0.1%), Current Account (-114B) and the week’s highlight: the Federal Funds Rate (<0.25%), FOMC Statement and Press Conference, in addition to the FOMC’s Economic Projections. Thursday’s data includes Building Permits (+1.04M), Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (312K), the Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Index (22.8), and a speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen. No significant data is due out on Friday, and the first day of the G20 Meetings begins on Saturday.

The Eurozone’s economic calendar is sparse this week, beginning with Tuesday’s release of German ZEW Economic Sentiment (5.2) and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (21.3). Wednesday will have Eurozone Final CPI (+0.3%), which is the last significant release of the week.

Japanese major economic releases this week begin with a speech in Osaka by BOJ Governor Kuroda on Tuesday, and ends with the Trade Balance (-0.99T) and a speech by Kuroda to the Securities Industry Convention in Tokyo on Thursday.

The UK economic calendar is fairly busy this week beginning with Tuesday’s release of CPI (+1.5%), PPI Input (+0.1%) and RPI (+2.5%). On Wednesday, the BOE’s MPC Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes is due out, as well as Average Earnings Index (+0.5%), the Claimant Count Change (-29.7K), and the UK Unemployment Rate (6.3%). Thursday will have this week’s highlight, the Scottish Independence Vote, in addition to Retail Sales (+0.4%) and CBI Industrial Order Expectations (9).

Switzerland’s economic calendar starts with Monday’s release of PPI (+0.2%), followed by Thursday’s release of the Swiss Trade Balance (+2.56B), the SNB’s Libor Rate (<0.25%), and the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment.

Australian economic data highlights are limited to Monday’s release of New Motor Vehicle Sales (-1.3% last) and the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, along with a speech by RBA Assistant Governor Kent on Tuesday.

This week’s major Canadian economic releases begin on Tuesday with Manufacturing Sales (+1.1%) and a speech by BOC Governor Poloz. Thursday will feature Foreign Securities Purchases (+2.47B). followed by Friday’s releases that include CPI (-0.1%), Core CPI (+0.2%) and Wholesale Sales (+0.8%).

New Zealand’s key economic data coming out this week includes the Current Account (-1.04B) on Tuesday, GDP (+0.6%) on Wednesday, Visitor Arrivals (-0.5% last) on Thursday, and Parliamentary Elections on Friday.

Top Policymaker Speeches and Statements for the Coming Week

Upcoming speeches and statements from top monetary policymakers are listed below for this week, along with their start time in the GMT time zone and the affected currency. Unexpectedly hawkish comments will generally benefit the relevant currency.

Tuesday, September 16th

• 1:00am AUD RBA Assist Governor Kent speaks

• 2:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• 6:30am JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda speaks

• 5:45pm CAD BOC Governor Poloz speaks

Wednesday, September 17th

• 7:00pm USD FOMC Economic Projections

• 7:00pm USD FOMC Statement

• 7:30pm USD FOMC Press Conference

• 7:35am JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda speaks

• 8:30am CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

• 1:45pm USD Fed Chair Yellen speaks

• All Day GBP Scottish Independence Vote

Saturday, September 20th

• Day 1 ALL G20 Meetings

Technical Chart Points and Forecast Market View by Currency Pair