Allan von Mehren
Danske Bank A/S
Market Movers ahead
Scandi Markets will be on its toes ahead of the Riksbank meeting on Thursday. We expect a 25bp cut and a lowering of its interest rate path.
The ECB meeting, also on Thursday, should be less eventful as the ECB will now evaluate the effect of the large plate of easing measures presented in June.
The ISM manufacturing index and the job market report on the calendar for next week will underpin the recent strengthening of the US economic recovery.
We also look for good news from China: we expect the NBS manufacturing PMI index to support our view that the Chinese economy is gradually recovering.
Global macro and market themes
Central banks are creating inflation, but not in consumer prices. The risk of new asset bubbles should be taken seriously.
Bond yields declined during H1 contrary to our and consensus expectations. Will we see another bond yield conundrum?
US housing and capex are picking up. So is core inflation.
China gained more speed in June while the euro recovery slowed a bit.
Focus
This week we published Nordic Outlook - June 2014. The outlook for the Nordics has brightened as the Danish economy has now entered a phase of recovery.
The insurgence in Iraq has hampered the global oil market over the past couple of weeks. We have looked at the short- and long-term impact on the oil market (see Research Commodities - Insurgence puts great Iraqi potential at risk, 26 June 2014).
This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to gains above 1.0750 after US data
EUR/USD manages to hold in positive territory above 1.0750 despite retreating from the fresh multi-week high it set above 1.0800 earlier in the day. The US Dollar struggles to find demand following the weaker-than-expected NFP data.
GBP/USD declines below 1.2550 following NFP-inspired upsurge
GBP/USD struggles to preserve its bullish momentum and trades below 1.2550 in the American session. Earlier in the day, the disappointing April jobs report from the US triggered a USD selloff and allowed the pair to reach multi-week highs above 1.2600.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,300 despite falling US yields
Gold stays on the back foot below $2,300 in the American session on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in negative territory below 4.6% after weak US data but the improving risk mood doesn't allow XAU/USD to gain traction.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Should you buy BTC here? Premium
Bitcoin (BTC) price shows signs of a potential reversal but lacks confirmation, which has divided the investor community into two – those who are buying the dips and those who are expecting a further correction.
Week ahead – BoE and RBA decisions headline a calm week
Bank of England meets on Thursday, unlikely to signal rate cuts. Reserve Bank of Australia could maintain a higher-for-longer stance. Elsewhere, Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions.