With much focus on Ukraine there is nothing to really trade today as European &UK news flow is quiet, with very little on the calendar today, likely to keep trading volumes very light.
However, here is a brief catch up on two currencies I’m looking at trading in the longer term and why.
The GBP is currently a very bullish currency that is being driven by speculation of a interest rate hike from the Bank of England by the end of 2014, I’m looking for a nice sell off on GBP/USD in order to start buying it back, good levels of support are around 1.7000 to 1.6900 with a long-term target of 1.7500 in the coming months.
On Wednesday we have the MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, and we are looking for some members of the MPC wanting to raise rates sooner rather than later, if we get some disagreement in the Bank Rate Votes then we could see a new batch of strength for the GBP which could send GBP/USD on its way towards 1.7500 over the coming weeks.
I’m still viewing the euro as a bullish currency as long as it holds above 1.3500, this is because the market is still disappointed with the ECB, the market wants the ECB to introduce a QE programme in order to start selling euros, so until this point I will have a bullish bias on the euro. 1.3500 stands as strong support for the time being, you could look to buy the euro from the low 1.3500’s with a long-term target of 1.3800.
Pre Session events
Weekend news focus remains on Ukraine with further EU sanctions on Russia to be discussed on Tuesday after Western briefings said the downing of MH17 in eastern Ukraine was a mistake,with pro-Russian separatists and Russian military personnel behind the shooting of a surface-to-air missile.
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