Weekly Chart Analysis – 28 March 2016

Weekly Chart Analysis – 28 March 2016

Weekly chart analysis covers EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD.

The report looks at the daily and intraday charts to gauge the price action behaviour.

Weekly Market Risk Events:

Tuesday, March 29th @ 4:30pm - USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

 
Wednesday, March 30th @ 1:15pm - USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Wednesday, March 30th @ 3:30pm - USD - Crude Oil Inventories
 
Thursday, March 31st @ 8:0am - GBP - BOE Gov Carney Speaks
Thursday, March 31st @ 9:30am - GBP - Final GDP q/q
Thursday, March 31st @ 1:30pm - CAD - GDP m/m
 
Friday, April 1st @ 2:0am - CNY - Manufacturing PMI
Friday, April 1st @ 9:30am - GBP - Manufacturing PMI
Friday, April 1st @ 1:30pm - USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m
Friday, April 1st @ 1:30pm - USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
Friday, April 1st @ 3:30pm - CAD - ISM Manufacturing PMI
 

Price charts and Daily setups

EURUSD: 30min - 4h - Daily view

We had a pretty quiet week in the markets. With Easter in the calendar, many exchanges were closed for business on Monday, Thursday and Friday. This kind of low liquidity environment support technical patterns. The price tends to be more responsive if the unknown risk is taken away from the equation.
EURUSD traded to the downside all week long. It started at the high of 1.1325 and traded lower every day to close the week at 1.1150 area. The pair had 7 consecutive days of losses.
The price action formed a flag on intraday charts. This is third this kind of pattern formed on EURUSD this month. A flag formed with lower lows is called a bullish flag and normally suggest higher prices on the breakout of the trend line.
Today is a bank Holiday and due to thin volume, it’s hard to know if we already have a break to the upside.
I would suggest to wait until a reversal pattern is formed on lower time frames to enter long positions.
Wait for higher high to form a top 1.12, bulls could buy on pullback from 1.12, stop could be placed below the recent low 1.35 area.

There is s potential that EURUSD could test the support at 1.11 once again before it moves higher towards the former resistance 1.1400.
Bears would have to wait for the break of the 1.1050 and the pullback from these levels to consider shorts.
 

EURUSD Daily View

EURUSD
15-30 min view

GBPUSD: 30min - 4h - Daily view

Cable was definitely another big loser last week. After reversing from the resistance at 1.45, it was printing lower prices almost every day last week. It had finished the week below 1.41.
Daily charts suggest that downtrend is intact and it’s reasonable to assume the double bottom might be formed at 1.3850 sometimes within the next 8 weeks.
Before this is the case, GBPUSD could see a correction to the upside from the current levels.
There is a major support at 1.41 (marked in yellow), which was very responsive in the past.
Daily stochastics suggest the reversal to the upside could take place in the short term.

Looking at intraday charts, the pair shows some reversal from the support mentioned above.
If the current level is a technical higher high, we could consider to enter longs on pullback around 1.4100.
If the price fails to print higher and breaches the recent low 1.4050, its likely GBPUSD will be printing much lower after that. Bears could hunt a good short setup around the same levels, assuming the prices breaks the lows first.

GBPUSD Daily View

GBPUSD
15-30 min view

AUDUSD: 30min - 4h - Daily view

As expected, AUDUSD corrected from the major resistance and traded lower last week. My last week’s analysis stands firm. I expect 0.7250 before the uptrend resumes. My short AUDUSD trade is now triggered
See last week’s analysis below

Aussie had another great week. I was expecting a pullback from the last week’s highs at 0.7570, but AUDUSD reversed to the upside after very short correction. It printed another multi month high and closed the week above 0.76. As mentioned before, this level is a major resistance. It was a strong and responsive support back in 2015. It is likely that this level will be recognised by traders once again.
Bears could see the current levels of 0.76 as a resistance. The logical target lays around 0.7320, another important support – former resistance.
Bulls could wait for 0.7320 to enter more longs. These positions could be established for the long term ripping the benefits of carry trade.

I issued a SHORT AUDUSD TRADE

AUDUSD Daily View

AUDUSD
15-30 min view

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