- US Retail Sales expected to keep a very stable and positive trend.
- Most of the consumption trends look good, with optimist surveys and nice housing data.
- Higher consumption is not translating into higher inflation.
The United States economy has been keeping its healthy and steady growth for the last years, with the labor market and, thus, the consumption components being the leaders on the rise. Few economic indicators paint this beautiful picture better than the Retail Sales numbers, published by the US Census Bureau, which have maintained monthly growths in the 0%-1% range for the best of the last 5 years.
The June release for this key consumption indicator, due to be printed on Tuesday, July 16th at 12.30 GMT, is expected to stay at this pace, with a consensus estimate of 0.3% for the Retail Sales Control Group, the core measure of this group of data. The other couple of Retail Sales data, the headline number and the excluding-vehicles figure, are forecast to have grown 0.2% each during the last month.
All of these numbers would keep a growing pace consistent with the one followed for the last five years, although it would also mean a small, return-to-the-mean moderation growing path for the main US consumption indicators. As we see on our US consumption trends table, most of the key consumption indicators are showing positive or neutral trends through their last 10 releases. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures show a more modest-but-healthy 1.5% quarterly average pace and despite some downtrends in minor, very-specific indicators such as the Consumer Credit Change or the Total Vehicle Sales the full picture is quite bullish.
|Consumer Behavior||Impact||Last||Trend||Last 3||Last 5||Last 10|
|Retail Sales Control Group||3||0.50%||Up||0.50%||0.48%||0.25%|
|Retail Sales MoM||2||0.50%||Up||0.63%||0.38%||0.20%|
|Retail Sales ex Autos MoM||2||0.50%||Up||0.60%||0.46%||0.16%|
|Core PCE QoQ||2||1.20%||Neutral||1.53%||1.80%||1.64%|
|Consumer Credit Change||1||$17.09B||Down||$14.96B||$15.42B||$17.22B|
|Redbook Index YoY||1||6.20%||Neutral||5.57%||5.42%||5.51%|
|Redbook Index MoM||1||-2.20%||Down||-2.37%||2.42%||-0.56%|
|Total Vehicle Sales||1||16.40M||Down||17.00M||17.01M||17.18M|
|Consumer Confidence||Impact||Last||Trend||Last 3||Last 5||Last 10|
|UMich Consumer Sentiment Index||3||98.20||Up||98.47||97.52||97.33|
|IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism||1||56.60||Up||56.13||55.66||54.77|
|Housing-related Consumption||Impact||Last||Trend||Last 3||Last 5||Last 10|
|Existing Home Sales MoM||2||5.34M||Up||5.25M||5.24M||5.22M|
|New Home Sales MoM||2||0.626M||Up||0.664M||0.653M||0.627M|
|Housing Starts MoM||2||1.269M||Neutral||1.214M||1.207M||1.208M|
|Inflation-related Consumption||Impact||Last||Trend||Last 3||Last 5||Last 10|
|Core PCE - Price Index YoY||2||1.60%||Down||1.60%||1.66%||1.79%|
|Core PCE - Price Index MoM||2||0.20%||Neutral||0.13%||0.12%||0.12%|
|Personal Income MoM||2||0.50%||Neutral||0.37%||0.24%||0.34%|
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