• Sales to moderate but remain positive
  • Labor economy underpins consumption
  • Disposable income gains should provide spending

The US Census Bureau will release its advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services for June at 8:30 am EDT, 12:30 GMT on Tuesday July 16th.


Retail sales are expected to gain 0.1% in June after adding 0.5% in May.  Sales excluding automobiles are predicted to increase 0.1% after May’s 0.5% jump. The control group, sales minus building materials, motor vehicles and parts and gasoline and food service receipts, which is used to calculate the personal consumption expenditure component of GDP, is forecast to rise 0.3% after a revised 0.4% increase in May, initially issued at 0.5%.

Retail Sales, GDP and the labor market

Though US economic growth appears to have shifted lower in the second quarter, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate was 1.4% on July 10th the labor market remains strong.

Wages were 3.1% higher on the year in June and with PCE inflation running at 1.5% in May that represents a healthy rise in disposable income. Non-farm payrolls added 224,000 new positions relieving concerns that the weak February and May results were the forerunners of a slower trend in job creation.

Manufacturing payrolls rose by 17,000 their largest increase since January, though the 12-month moving average has declined from 24,166 last July, its best average in over two decades, to 13,916 in June.  With unemployment at a 50 year low of 3.7% and the economy continuing to register record employment for black and Hispanic workers the positive impact of the labor market on retail sales should keep consumption buoyant.


Initial Jobless claims remain, like the unemployment rate, near five decade lows.

Business Sentiment

Business executives throughout the economy have recovered some of their optimism towards new employees in the past three months with the employment PMI figures in the manufacturing sector seeing the sharpest rise.  Hiring plans have cooled since their post-recession highs in the second half of last year, but as depicted in the initial jobless claim no one has firing on their minds.

Consumer Sentiment

Consumer attitudes have also returned from their government shutdown inspired dip in the early part of the year. The Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment scored  97.9 in June, which, though down from May’s 15 year record of 102.9 is at the upper end of the readings from the last two years, themselves the best in more than 20.



The fundamentals of the consumer economy remain healthy, with  jobs, wages and sentiment all at positive levels. The concerns generated by the China trade dispute may have dimmed business sentiment but retail sales are likely to adhere to the optimism of the US consumer.



Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD remains capped below 1.11 growth and trade concerns

EUR/USD is drifting off the highs and trades below 1.11. Weak US data on Wednesday weighs on the dollar and souring US-Sino relations weigh on sentiment. 


GBP/USD falls below 1.28 as DUP casts doubts about the Brexit deal

GBP/UDS is trading below 1.28. The DUP has rejected critical elements of the Brexit deal. UK PM Johnson is trying to find a formula that is agreeable for MPs and the EU. UK Retail Sales remained flat in September as expected.


USD/JPY: stuck in a range above mid-108.00s pivotal point

The pair was seen consolidating the recent gains to over two-month tops. The near-term bias might have already shifted in favour of bullish traders.


US Retail Sales: Reports of their death have been greatly exaggerated

Retail sales unexpectedly fell in September for the first time in seven months and the GDP component control group was flat, eliciting concerns that the manufacturing contraction might be starting to damage the far larger consumer sector.

Read more

Gold: Under pressure in Asia, $1,477 is key support

Gold created an inside bar candle on Wednesday, signaling indecision in the market. A break below the candle's low of $1,477 would put the bears in a commanding position.

Gold News

Forex Majors