Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
AUD/SGD 4H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: The Australian Dollar is poised for a rally against its Singapore counterpart. AUD/SGD has just confirmed the lower boundary of the channel, which implies a recovery towards the upper part of the pattern. The bullish outlook is also supported by the daily and weekly technical indicators. Accordingly, we expect a strong rebound from 1.0250/00 up to 1.07-1.08. A counter-argument against Aussie’s appreciation would be a high percentage of bulls in the market. As of right now, as many as 71% of traders are holding long positions. If the price closes under 1.02, the new target will be the April low at 1.0130, and we should not rule out a deeper decline down to the March low at 0.9980.
USD/PLN 1H Chart: Descending Triangle
Comment: USD/PLN is currently consolidating, after the pair bounced off of 3.71 at the very beginning of April. Before the US Dollar returns to appreciation, however, there is a chance the rate will fall some five-six figures. The currency pair is forming a descending triangle, a pattern that implies growing supply. We should therefore be ready for a breach of support between 3.86 and 3.85. The first major demand area this sell-off will encounter is at 3.8270/20, while the key level is at 3.80, implied by the four-week up-trend. Considering the sentiment in the SWFX market, the bears might not remain in control for long, since the Greenback is already overbought—73% of positions are already short.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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