Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
EUR/USD 1H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: Both the short- and long-term outlooks on EUR/USD are bullish. Today the currency pair is expected to extend its current rally up to 1.1470/60, where we expect the Euro to start a downward correction. The downside, however, is limited, and not only by the lower boundary of the channel, but also by the rising support line that was established in March. There is also a strong demand area near 1.1374, represented by the 200-hour SMA. In the longer-term perspective, the rate should be aiming for 1.1494, namely the 2015 October high. Distribution between the bulls and bears in the SWFX market favour appreciation of the European currency—39% of open positions are long and 61% are short.
EUR/CHF 1H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: For the time being EUR/CHF is bearish. The currency pair has recently formed a downward-sloping channel, implying that the upside is limited by the falling resistance line at 1.0886/83, while the target is the lower boundary of the pattern at 1.0844/41. The latter area is also reinforced by the April 7 low and daily S2. Alternatively, should the price close above 1.0886/83, the focus will shift to the 200-hour SMA and the April 6 high between 1.0906 and 1.0915. Meanwhile, multi-day decline of the Euro is unlikely, considering that there is an eight-month up-trend at 1.0827. As for the sentiment, a majority of the SWFX market participants is holding long positions, namely 72% of traders.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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