Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
AUD/NZD 1H Chart: Triangle
Comment: AUD/NZD appears to have formed a triangle within the channel we looked at yesterday. Given the overall bullish bias and the signals provided by the technical indicators, the break-out to the upside seems a lot more likely than a decline. Above 1.0770 the currency pair should aim for the January 19 high at 1.0840. Nevertheless, there is also a strong counterargument, since the Aussie is overbought (74% of positions are long), meaning we should not rule out a sell-off. If the price closes below the weekly PP, the next target will be the 200-hour SMA and the daily S1 at 1.0735, while the main support is at 1.07, provided by the lower boundary of the channel in the four-hour chart.
USD/PLN 1H Chart: Triangle
Comment: For some reason there is a striking similarity between the current situations in AUD/NZD and USD/PLN. Both have triangles forming within the ascending channels. However, the case for a rally here is somewhat stronger, considering that the US Dollar is in fact oversold—68% of positions are short. Accordingly, our base case scenario is a rally through the near-term trend-line at 4.1370 and the January 21 high up to the upper edge of the channel between 4.19 and 4.20. Meanwhile, there are plenty of potential floors in case USD/PLN dips through 4.13. The first one will be the weekly PP at 4.1170, followed by a combination of the daily S2, January 22 low and the 200-hour SMA around 4.10.
-------
Who were the best experts in 2015? Have your say and vote for FXStreet's Forex Best Awards 2016! Cast your vote now!
-------
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to gains above 1.0750 after US data
EUR/USD manages to hold in positive territory above 1.0750 despite retreating from the fresh multi-week high it set above 1.0800 earlier in the day. The US Dollar struggles to find demand following the weaker-than-expected NFP data.
GBP/USD declines below 1.2550 following NFP-inspired upsurge
GBP/USD struggles to preserve its bullish momentum and trades below 1.2550 in the American session. Earlier in the day, the disappointing April jobs report from the US triggered a USD selloff and allowed the pair to reach multi-week highs above 1.2600.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,300 despite falling US yields
Gold stays on the back foot below $2,300 in the American session on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in negative territory below 4.6% after weak US data but the improving risk mood doesn't allow XAU/USD to gain traction.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Should you buy BTC here? Premium
Bitcoin (BTC) price shows signs of a potential reversal but lacks confirmation, which has divided the investor community into two – those who are buying the dips and those who are expecting a further correction.
Week ahead – BoE and RBA decisions headline a calm week
Bank of England meets on Thursday, unlikely to signal rate cuts. Reserve Bank of Australia could maintain a higher-for-longer stance. Elsewhere, Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions.