Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
GBP/AUD 4H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: Two weeks ago GBP/AUD bottomed out near the August low, and since then the currency pair has been forming a bullish channel. One of the major resistances, namely the 200-period SMA, has already been broken, which strengthens the case for a further rally. In the near term, however, we are likely to see a downward correction, but the decline should be limited by the rising support line at 2.1270/40. As for the next month’s target, this is considered to be a solid resistance level at 2.2110, represented by the September high. In the meantime, a dip under 2.1270/40 will imply a sell-off down to the October 12 low at 2.08. The SWFX sentiment is bearish: 66% of open positions are short.
EUR/TRY 4H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: We hold a negative bias with respect to EUR/TRY, mainly because of the major resistance area between 3.45 and 3.49. Moreover, the currency pair has already formed a bearish channel. However, we should recognise some bullish potential in the short run—the price may rise up to 3.29/3.27, but further advancement is unlikely due to the monthly S1 and falling resistance trend-line. In case this supply area is breached, potential ceilings will be at 3.33 (200-period SMA) and at 3.38/3.37 (Oct 14 high and monthly PP). Meanwhile, we see no significant supports below the spot. The closest potential reversal point is as far as 2.87/2.85, represented by the July and May lows.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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