Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
EUR/AUD 4H Chart: Triangle
Comment: EUR/AUD is about to break out of the symmetrical triangle, which should lead to increased volatility in the near term. If the price jumps above the upper trend-line at 1.5650, we will expect an extension of the rally towards 1.5825, where the weekly R1 merges with the last week’s high and 200-period SMA. Additional resistances are at 1.5929 (monthly PP) and at 1.6250 (monthly R1 and Sep high). Alternatively, if the value of the Euro falls below A$1.56, the sell-off is likely to go on until the rate falls down to 1.54. At the same time, a close beneath 1.5279 will imply a decline to the Aug low at 1.50. Meanwhile, there is no consensus in the market: 53% of open positions are long and 47% are short.
AUD/USD 4H Chart: Triangle
Comment: As it turned out, AUD/USD did not exit the triangle against the background of the RBA meeting minutes published yesterday. Still, the pair is at the very apex of the figure, meaning we should soon see a spike in the turbulence of the market. Because the pair formed the pattern after a rally, the base scenario is a bullish break-out with the main target at 0.7380 (weekly R1 and Oct 12 high). If this is not the case and the up-trend at 0.7265 fails to stay intact, the next support will be at 0.7235, represented by the monthly R1 and Oct 18 low. An additional demand area should be at 0.7190 (weekly S1 and Oct 13 low). As for the SWFX sentiment, 72% of the traders are currently long.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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