Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
USD/PLN 4H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: There are good reasons to be long USD/PLN right now, as the currency pair has just broken out of the triangle to the upside and then formed a bullish channel. Still, there are considerable downside risks in the short run. First, the rate is currently oscillating next to the resistance trend-line. Second, there is supposed to be strong supply at 3.74, where the US Dollar peaked in February. Accordingly, there is a high chance of a sell-off down to support at 3.7140, which should remain intact for the bullish outlook to stay valid. Otherwise, the bears will have a good opportunity to throw USD/PLN to 3.6920, where the weekly pivot point merges with the 200-hour simple moving average.
EUR/SEK 1H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: As resistance at 9.63 proved to be impenetrable, EUR/SEK had no other choice but to decline. The pair has already fallen beneath the Jan low and it is set to extend the losses, as implied by the technical indicators and resistance trend-line, currently at 9.28. Once support at 9.25, represented by the weekly S1, is out of the way, the next target will be 9.18, where the daily S2 coincides with the lower boundary of the channel. There we can expect an upward correction. Yet another formidable support the bears should be wary of is seen at 9.16, created by the weekly S2 level together with the 2014 Nov low. Meanwhile, according to the SWFX market sentiment, 73% of open positions are short.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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