Vladimir Mihaylov
Independent Analyst
After closing last 6 weeks in a row positive now EUR is consolidating at the very top, just about 30 pips below the 1.3966 level. We haven't seen such price since mid 2011. I am not sure whether the EUR can handle it as in the current moment it is very vulnerable to sudden and huge drop to 1.3600 for example. However i do not see for now breaking of 1.3510 support. What about the upside - well, we have the overall top at 1.3966, as we are just below it will be quite easy to break higher is FED decides to stop the tapreing program on its meeting tomorrow. The pair will look at 1.4040-1.4090 and 1.4120. The last is a crazy one and the market will not close there. Even with bad news for the USD the price of this pair will return back to 1.4000 no matter where it will go minutes after the news release. Again we shall wait for the FED's decision for today. Any moves will be in a small range.
GOLD got scared ahead of 1400 and it reached only 1392 resistance, then a massive profit taking put the price back at the 1360 support and out of the negative weekly Ichimoku. At the end the cloud has rejected the price as i was expecting once before. As the price is above 1345 we are still bullish. Daily close below will mean a deeper correction to 1320 or 1310. But for now breaking below is not likely.
NZD has stopped at the 0.8550 support and if we have USD recovery then the price will look for another support at 0.8520. Next support is the area 0.8480-90, finally 0.8420. To the upside 0.8580 is first resistance then 0.8605, and finally 0.8675 level of april 2013.
AUD has reached 0.9100 as expected but did not succeed to close above and the price went back below 0.9100 and will look for a support around 0.9060. Just below at 0.9040 is the next support which has to hold. the final support is at 0.8990 and above this we are bullish on weekly frame. I expect the upside to continue with target 0.9150 after the current correction ends.
JPY is trying to form a solid support at 101.00, but lacks enough power to break above 102.30 which is a very powerful resistance. You may try to SHORT there with a tight SL. Breaking and closing above 102.70 will restore the upside.
GBP is consolidating between 1.6600 and 1.6670. Upon breaking of either the move will continue in the same direction. GBP is waiting to see what the future of the US tapering program will be.
For today:
LONG EUR above 1.3915 SL 1.3900 TP 1.3960-1.3990-1.4010-1.4040-1.4080
SHORT EUR below 1.3930 SL 1.3940 TP 1.3900-1.3880-1.3860-1.3840-1.3800
LONG GOLD above 1352 SL 1347 TP 1360-1386-1390-1398-1405
SHORT GOLD below 1372 SL 1376 TP 1362-1356-1348-1345
Good luck!
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