China lowered the CNY’s fixing by 0.18% to 6.1312 per USD today, the biggest cut in the fixing since July 2012 to the weakest level since December 3. The move comes quickly in the wake of the poor trade data over the weekend and in particular the sharp 18.1% drop in exports compared to a year earlier.
Although lunar new year timing may have impacted the data, the drop in exports is still significant and may explain why China has been forcing a weaker currency over recent weeks.
Additionally February inflation data in China was soft, with price pressures recording a broad based decline, with CPI inflation falling to a 13 month low of 2% YoY. The soft inflation data adds further reason for the authorities in China to push for a weaker currency.
USD/CNY and USD/CNH both moving higher in reaction to the data and weaker fixing, with the Chinese currency likely to remain under pressure in the short term both onshore and offshore.
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