EUR/USD: a new game about to start?


Not really if you ask me: is true the FED has shaken the scheme, but the EUR/USD daily chart is still far from suggesting a top is finally in place: this week slide has held above the 38.2% retracement of its latest bullish run, and price aims to close the week above the 1.3800 figure, which is pretty significant for the health of the bullish trend.

There are indeed some factors of downward risk in the same chart, as indicators had turned lower and rest right above their midlines, while price stands right below its 20 SMA: a new daily opening will probably shed more light on the picture but overall, as commented past week, this last bearish run seems corrective moreover after a 6-week in a row advance. If upcoming week sees price still holding above the 1.3730/50 area and even advancing beyond 1.3860 immediate resistance, then the most likely scenario is an upward continuation back towards the year high of 1.3966, while a break above this last should see price finally testing the 1.4000 elusive figure.

On the other hand, a break below this week low may see price dipping another 100 pips towards 1.3660 price zone, 61.8% retracement of the same rally: a break below this last will indeed signal an increased risk of a midterm bearish run and confirm the interim top posted this March. 


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