Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
EURUSD
The Euro traded within 140-pips wide range on Friday, after US jobs data were released, on sharp U-turn from 1.09 low to 1.1041 (daily high), where strong 200SMA barrier capped upside attempts. Bullish daily and weekly close on Friday was a signal of bullish resumption, however, the upside attempts were capped and daily studies remain bearishly aligned.
This keeps in play risk of lower top formation and fresh leg lower, while correction off 1.0823 (last week’s low) remains capped under pivotal barrier at 1.1044/65 (200SMA / 26 Feb lower top, reinforced by descending 20SMA).
Overnight’s trading was entrenched within narrow range, while early European action showed fresh weakness and cracked initial support at 1.0951, (daily 10SMA), which marks the first downside trigger.
Next important support lies at 1.0900 (Friday’s low / near Fibo 61.8% of two-day recovery rally from 1.0823) and break here is needed to confirm reversal and re-expose key near-term supports at 1.0860/23 (daily Ichimoku cloud top / 02 Mar low of the downleg from 1.1374).
Res: 1.1000; 1.1044; 1.1065; 1.1100
Sup: 1.0942; 1.0900; 1.0860; 1.0823
GBPUSD
Cable ended past week in long bullish candle, as uninterrupted recovery rally from 1.3834 (29 Feb low), peaked at1.4246, just ahead of daily 30SMA at 1.4273 and closed above important Fibo 38.2% of 1.4665/1.3834 downleg at 1.4151.
Corrective easing is under way and probes below 1.4151, with further downside seen likely, as overbought daily Slow Stochastic is turning lower and generating bearish signal, as the pair returned below cracked daily 20SMA at 1.4203.
Next support lies at 1.4088 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.3834/1.4246 upleg), followed by daily 10SMA at 1.4024, above which extended correction should be contained, to keep near-term bulls in play for renewed attempts high.
On the other side, daily studies are still bearish and see risk of lower top formation and fresh bearish acceleration towards key 1.3834, confirmation of which requires sustained break below 1.40 zone (psychological support / near Fibo 61.8% of 1.3834/1.4246 recovery).
Res: 1.4213; 1.4246; 1.4273; 1.4347
Sup: 1.4088; 1.4040; 1.4024; 1.3991
USDCAD
The pair hit fresh three-month low at 1.3314, following Friday’s close in red and the seventh consecutive weekly bearish close, on a cycle from 1.4688 (20 Jan peak).
Bearish acceleration comes ticks away from important 200SMA support, which lies at 1.3281 and break lower is needed generate another bearish signal.
Strong recovery signals of Crude oil price, boost Loonie for further strength and deeper correction of pair’s multi-year rally from 0.9405 to 1.4688.
Sustained break below 200SMA will open psychological 1.30 support and Fibo 61.8% of 1.1917/1.4688 rally, which lies just below, at 1.2976.
Oversold conditions of daily studies remain ignored for now, however, hesitation at 200SMA support, cannot be ruled out.
Falling daily 10SMA offers initial resistance at 1.3495, followed by daily 20/100SMA’s bear-cross formation at 1.3653, also Fibo 61.8% of 1.3856/1.3314 downleg.
Res: 1.3400; 1.3495; 1.3521; 1.3653
Sup : 1.3314; 1.3281; 1.3000; 1.2976
AUDUSD
The pair consolidates under fresh high at 0.7441, posted on Friday, on five-day rally from 0.7106 trough.
Friday’s close above key short-term barrier at 0.7383 (Oct-Nov 2015 highs) and tops of multi-month congestion, generated bullish signal for possible stronger correction of larger downtrend, as the pair also closed above Fibo 38.2% of 0.8161/0.6825 downleg.
Daily studies maintain firm bullish tone and so far show no significant reaction on overbought conditions.
Extended wave C, which commenced from 0.6972 trough, could travel to 0.7551, its 138.2% Fibonacci expansion.
On the downside, broken FE 100% at 0.7391 (near former range tops), marks immediate support and holds for now, followed by broken weekly Ichimoku cloud base at 0.7360, another good support.
Formation of 10/200SMA’s Golden Cross at 0.7254, underpins the action.
Res: 0.7441; 0.7493; 0.7551; 0.7650
Sup: 0.7391; 0.7360; 0.7325; 0.7254
The Euro traded within 140-pips wide range on Friday, after US jobs data were released, on sharp U-turn from 1.09 low to 1.1041 (daily high), where strong 200SMA barrier capped upside attempts. Bullish daily and weekly close on Friday was a signal of bullish resumption, however, the upside attempts were capped and daily studies remain bearishly aligned.
This keeps in play risk of lower top formation and fresh leg lower, while correction off 1.0823 (last week’s low) remains capped under pivotal barrier at 1.1044/65 (200SMA / 26 Feb lower top, reinforced by descending 20SMA).
Overnight’s trading was entrenched within narrow range, while early European action showed fresh weakness and cracked initial support at 1.0951, (daily 10SMA), which marks the first downside trigger.
Next important support lies at 1.0900 (Friday’s low / near Fibo 61.8% of two-day recovery rally from 1.0823) and break here is needed to confirm reversal and re-expose key near-term supports at 1.0860/23 (daily Ichimoku cloud top / 02 Mar low of the downleg from 1.1374).
Res: 1.1000; 1.1044; 1.1065; 1.1100
Sup: 1.0942; 1.0900; 1.0860; 1.0823
GBPUSD
Cable ended past week in long bullish candle, as uninterrupted recovery rally from 1.3834 (29 Feb low), peaked at1.4246, just ahead of daily 30SMA at 1.4273 and closed above important Fibo 38.2% of 1.4665/1.3834 downleg at 1.4151.
Corrective easing is under way and probes below 1.4151, with further downside seen likely, as overbought daily Slow Stochastic is turning lower and generating bearish signal, as the pair returned below cracked daily 20SMA at 1.4203.
Next support lies at 1.4088 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.3834/1.4246 upleg), followed by daily 10SMA at 1.4024, above which extended correction should be contained, to keep near-term bulls in play for renewed attempts high.
On the other side, daily studies are still bearish and see risk of lower top formation and fresh bearish acceleration towards key 1.3834, confirmation of which requires sustained break below 1.40 zone (psychological support / near Fibo 61.8% of 1.3834/1.4246 recovery).
Res: 1.4213; 1.4246; 1.4273; 1.4347
Sup: 1.4088; 1.4040; 1.4024; 1.3991
USDCAD
The pair hit fresh three-month low at 1.3314, following Friday’s close in red and the seventh consecutive weekly bearish close, on a cycle from 1.4688 (20 Jan peak).
Bearish acceleration comes ticks away from important 200SMA support, which lies at 1.3281 and break lower is needed generate another bearish signal.
Strong recovery signals of Crude oil price, boost Loonie for further strength and deeper correction of pair’s multi-year rally from 0.9405 to 1.4688.
Sustained break below 200SMA will open psychological 1.30 support and Fibo 61.8% of 1.1917/1.4688 rally, which lies just below, at 1.2976.
Oversold conditions of daily studies remain ignored for now, however, hesitation at 200SMA support, cannot be ruled out.
Falling daily 10SMA offers initial resistance at 1.3495, followed by daily 20/100SMA’s bear-cross formation at 1.3653, also Fibo 61.8% of 1.3856/1.3314 downleg.
Res: 1.3400; 1.3495; 1.3521; 1.3653
Sup : 1.3314; 1.3281; 1.3000; 1.2976
AUDUSD
The pair consolidates under fresh high at 0.7441, posted on Friday, on five-day rally from 0.7106 trough.
Friday’s close above key short-term barrier at 0.7383 (Oct-Nov 2015 highs) and tops of multi-month congestion, generated bullish signal for possible stronger correction of larger downtrend, as the pair also closed above Fibo 38.2% of 0.8161/0.6825 downleg.
Daily studies maintain firm bullish tone and so far show no significant reaction on overbought conditions.
Extended wave C, which commenced from 0.6972 trough, could travel to 0.7551, its 138.2% Fibonacci expansion.
On the downside, broken FE 100% at 0.7391 (near former range tops), marks immediate support and holds for now, followed by broken weekly Ichimoku cloud base at 0.7360, another good support.
Formation of 10/200SMA’s Golden Cross at 0.7254, underpins the action.
Res: 0.7441; 0.7493; 0.7551; 0.7650
Sup: 0.7391; 0.7360; 0.7325; 0.7254
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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