Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
EURUSD
The Euro remains at the back foot and probes again below psychological 1.10 support, which was cracked yesterday, but failed to clearly break lower.
Narrow consolidation above 1.10 handle was capped by broken daily 30SMA at 1.1026, which marks significant resistance and guards the upper breakpoint of 200SMA at 1.1047.
Fresh weakness below 1.10 support now looks for next pivotal support at 1.0960 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0709/1.1374 ascend, reinforced by daily 55 and 100SMA’s, break of which is required to turn daily MA’s in full bearish mode and confirm reversal from 1.1374 top, for extension towards1.0880, top of 100-pips thick daily Ichimoku cloud.
Daily close below 1.10 handle will generate strong bearish signal, while close below 1.0960 is needed to confirm bearish resumption of pullback from 1.1374 peak.
Res: 1.1000; 1.1026; 1.1047; 1.1070
Sup: 1.0960; 1.0900; 1.0880; 1.0810
GBPUSD
Cable maintains strong bearish sentiment, boosted by renewed Brexit fears and extends past two days strong fall on fresh bearish acceleration through psychological 1.40 support. The pair posts fresh seven-year lows, as the downleg from 1.5928, 14 June 2015 lower top, looks for its Fibonacci 161.8% projection at 1.3720, which marks initial target, ahead of 1.3680, June 2001 low.
Firm bearish setup of technicals on all timeframes, maintains strong pressure and brings in near-term focus key longer-term support at 1.3501, low of January 2009, bottom of sharp Nov 2007 / Jan 2009 fall.
Daily close below 1.40 handle is seen as minimum requirement to confirm bearish resumption, as the pair so far ignores oversold daily Slow Stochastic.
However, pauses in steep descend should be anticipated, with 1.40 level offering initial resistance and recovery actions expected to hold below 1.4078, former breakpoint, low of 21 Jan.
Res: 1.4000; 1.4025; 1.4078; 1.4150
Sup: 1.3900; 1.3800; 1.3720; 1.3680
USDCAD
The pair regains traction on fresh weakness of the oil, with yesterday’s strong rally, which left long bullish daily candle, attempting through initial barrier at 1.3805 (daily 10SMA).
Bounce after repeated attack at 1.3640 zone, signals basing attempt, as three-week consolidation has been held above 1.3640 zone, which marks significant short-term support.
However, larger picture remains bearish, as the price holds below broken daily Ichimoku cloud base, which lies at 1.3870 and marks significant barrier, expected to cap upside attempts.
We look for fresh shorts under daily cloud base, for attempts towards key s/t support at 1.3640 zone, with break here, required to trigger fresh extension of s/t pullback from 2016 high at 1.4688, posted on 20 Jan.
Conversely, penetration into daily cloud would delay immediate bears and shift focus towards the upper breakpoint at 1.4014 (short-term consolidation top).
Res: 1.3853; 1.3870; 1.3967; 1.4014
Sup : 1.3769; 1.3736; 1.3705; 1.3651
AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar came under pressure on weaker oil and extends pullback from 0.7257, yesterday’s upside rejection.
Red daily candle with long upper shadow, left yesterday, generated bearish signal, which materialized on today’s fresh extension lower.
Fresh weakness retraced over 50% of 0.7067/0.7257 upleg and pressures strong support at 0.7150, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.6972/0.7257 upleg, reinforced by formation of daily 10/100SMA’s bull cross.
Bullish setup of daily MA’s suggests 0.7150 zone as ideal reversal point for fresh attempts higher, as the pair trades in strong uptrend from 0.6825.
On the other side, daily Slow Stochastic reversed from overbought territory and shows plenty of room at the downside, which signals further bearish acceleration, on sustained break below 0.7150 handle.
Loss of 0.7150 will open daily 20SMA at 0.7125, then 50% of 0.6972/0.7257 at 0.7114, ahead of next pivot at 0.7081, Fibonacci 61.8% / former higher base.
At the upside, session high at 0.7209, marks initial resistance, followed by near-term breakpoints at 0.7257/78, yesterday’s high / 200SMA.
Res: 0.7209; 0.7257; 0.7278; 0.7325
Sup: 0.7150; 0.7125; 0.7114; 0.7081
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD: Further losses retarget the 200-day SMA
Further gains in the greenback and a bearish performance of the commodity complex bolstered the continuation of the selling pressure in AUD/USD, which this time revisited three-day lows near 0.6560.
EUR/USD: Further weakness remains on the cards
EUR/USD added to Tuesday’s pullback and retested the 1.0730 region on the back of the persistent recovery in the Greenback, always against the backdrop of the resurgence of the Fed-ECB monetary policy divergence.
Gold flirts with $2,320 as USD demand losses steam
Gold struggles to make a decisive move in either direction and moves sideways in a narrow channel above $2,300. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield clings to modest gains near 4.5% and limits XAU/USD's upside.
Bitcoin price dips to $61K range, encourages buying spree among BTC fish, dolphins and sharks
Bitcoin (BTC) price is chopping downwards on the one-day time frame, while the outlook seen in the one-week period is a horizontal trade. In this shakeout moment, data shows that large holders are using the correction to buy up BTC.
Navigating the future of precious metals
In a recent episode of the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference podcast, hosted by Jesse Day, guests Stefan Gleason and JP Cortez shared their expert analysis on the dynamics of the gold and silver markets and discussed legislative efforts to promote these metals as sound money in the United States.