Euro tests near-term congestion floor

EURUSD

The Euro gains negative momentum and attempts at the lower boundary of week-long range trading. Yesterday’s failure to sustain recovery attempt above initial 1.38 support, triggered fresh weakness, as broken bull-trendline off previous 15 Apr low at 1.3789, capped the rally. Negative tone is establishing on near-term studies and keeps the downside pressured, with clear break below 1.3789 range’s lowest point, required to confirm lower top at yesterday’s 1.3829 peak and resume the third wave off 1.3729, towards its 100% Fibonacci expansion at 1.3769 and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3671/1.3904 at 1.3760, also broken bear-trendline, drawn off 1.3965, 13 Mar peak. Acceleration lower to confirm bears fully in play and open way towards 1.3730/20, main bull-trendline off 1.3475, 03 Feb low / daily Ichimoku cloud base and psychological 1.3700 support. Previous support at 1.38 zone, now offers initial resistance, ahead of 1.3829, yesterday’s high and above 50% of 1.3863/1.3784 descend, with alternative scenario requiring break here to sideline immediate bears.

Res: 1.3800; 1.3815; 1.3829; 1.3850
Sup: 1.3760; 1.3726; 1.3700; 1.3671




GBPUSD

Cable trades in consolidative mode after probing levels above short-term congestion tops at 1.6820 and posting fresh multi-year high at 1.6841. Hourly tone remains neutral, after the price found footstep at 1.6773 and trades within narrow range. On the other side, positive 4-hour studies see the upside favored, with eventual break above 1.6841 peak, required to resume larger rally and avert risk of deeper reversal, signaled by bearish MACD / RSI divergence. Break above 1.6841 to open 1.6877, November 2009 peak and 1.6900, round figure resistance in extension. Conversely, break below 1.67 higher base and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6464/1.6841 upleg, would revive near-term bears and signal reversal scenario.

Res: 1.6821; 1.6841; 1.6877; 1.6900
Sup: 1.6773; 1.6750; 1.6720; 1.6700




USDJPY

The pair maintains positive near-term tone and continues to move higher, as extension from 101.85 higher low penetrated daily cloud base and so far tested 102.71, 50% retracement of 104.11/101.31. Further advance remains favored, with next barriers laying at 102.89, 100SMA and 103 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement / daily cloud top, clearance of which to re-confirm 101.20/30 base and resume rally from 101.31, 11 Apr low. Bullish 20/55SMA’s crossover at 102.20 zone, where corrective dips should ideally find support, underpins the action, while only reversal below 101.85 higher low and Fibonacci 61.8% of 101.31/102.71 upleg, would bring near-term bears back in play and risk retest of 101.20 base. Negatively aligned daily studies would keep the downside at risk while 103 barrier caps recovery attempts.

Res: 102.71; 102.89; 103.00; 103.29
Sup: 102.20; 102.00; 101.85; 101.50




AUDUSD

The pair trades in near-term corrective mode off fresh high at 0.9460, with fresh acceleration higher seen off 0.9314 low. The rally retraced nearly 38.2% of 0.9460/0.9314 reversal, with hourly studies turning positive. However, risk of lower top formation and fresh weakness would remain in play, as long as the price holds below initial 0.9389 lower top of 17 Apr and 50% retracement, with negatively aligned 4-hour technicals supporting the notion. Clear break above 0.9389 and psychological 0.9400 barrier, is required to bring bulls fully in play and signal higher low formation for eventual push towards key near-term barrier at 0.9460. Bullish daily studies favor this scenario and only loss of 0.9300 breakpoint would delay bulls.

Res: 0.9370; 0.9390; 0.9424; 0.9460
Sup: 0.9345; 0.9315; 0.9300; 0.9253