Technical Summary for Commodities

GOLD

Gold holds positive hourly tone, built-up on recovery rally from 1272 low, which peaked at 1290. Subsequent pullback found temporary footstep at 1280, however, the price shows initial signals of fatigue, as break above 200SMA was not followed by daily close above and corrective rally off 1280, so far failing to regain 1290 barrier, with hourly indicators starting to turn lower. Also, 4-hour structure is neutral/negative, with descending 4-hour 55SMA, capping for now. Unless fresh strength through 1290 doesn’t occur, bullish scenario of renewed attempts towards pivotal 1300 barrier, broken bull-trendline off 1240 / psychological resistance, would be sidelined and fresh downside risk increased in case of violation of 1280, minor higher base, which would threaten for full retracement of 1272/1290 corrective rally.

Res: 1287; 1290; 1296; 1300
Sup: 1280; 1277; 1272; 1265





SILVER

Silver extends short-term weakness off 21.56, 10 July peak, to probe below near-term target at 19.31, Fibonacci 76.4% of 18.62/21.56 ascend. Initial signals of basing attempt here were given by yesterday’s Gravestone Doji candle, which requires daily close above 19.70, to confirm initiation of reversal scenario and sideline immediate risk of fresh weakness and test of psychological 19.00 support. Instead, the price action would be looking for test of initial dynamic barrier of 20/100SMA’s bear cross at 19.92, ahead of psychological 20.00 and more significant lower platform, reinforced by 20/200SMA’s death cross and daily cloud base at 20.10, also near Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 21.56/19.26 descend. However, caution is required, as hourly studies are neutral, with price action being entrenched within 6-day narrow range and 4-hour tone remaining negative, which may increase downside pressure, in case of failure to break initial 19.70 hurdle.

Res: 19.50; 19.70; 19.92; 20.00
Sup: 19.31; 19.26; 19.00; 18.62





CRUDE OIL

Crude Oil consolidates recent losses, which extended the third wave off 103.37, to a fresh low at 92.49, posted on 21 Aug. Consolidative phase is under way, with the price holding near the upper boundary of consolidative range at 94.42, also previous support of 100% Fibonacci expansion. Break here to give initial signal of near-term basing for further recovery rallies towards 94.80, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 98.55/92.49 descend and lower high at 95.36, seen as initial targets ahead of more significant 96.90 zone lower platform. Positive tone, established on near-term studies, supports the notion, with break above minimum 95.36, required to sideline downside risk towards key short-term upport at 91.23, 09 Jan low.

Res: 94.42; 95.36; 96.00; 96.90
Sup: 93.34; 93.00; 92.50; 92.00