Arnaud Masset
Swissquote Bank Ltd
Lacklustre economic data are piling up in US, the Fed has abandoned its hawkish rhetoric for a cautious one amid faltering inflation pressures. Since mid-May, the greenback has lost more than 5.2% on a trade-weighted basis, while the dollar index fell below 95, its lowest level since September last year, as US rates reversed gains.
Prospects of low interest rates in US have prompted investors to seek higher returns elsewhere and more specifically across the Pacific, namely Australia. Interest rate differential between Aussie and US bonds is appealing for investors. Moreover, the Reserve Bank of Australia has revised its economic outlook to the upside recently and acknowledge the recent improvement, both on the growth and inflation sides.
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Investors did not wait on the RBA hawkish tone to start building long AUD position. Speculative positioning, as reported by the CFTC, showed that total net long future position rose from zero to 37.5% of total open interest over the past six weeks. Despite this extreme level, we think they is still room for further increase of speculative positioning as investors will continue to discount a tightening move from the Fed in the short-term.
AUD/USD has broken the key 0.7849 resistance (high from June 2015) and is on its way to test the following one at 0.8164 (high from May 2015). However, a temporary correction cannot be ruled out in the short-term but it will only be a step back to jump higher.
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
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